We’ll Begin To Run Out Of Oil Within 7 Years

[Matthijs]

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/32789/We-ll-begin-to-run-out-of-oil-within-7-yearshttp://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/32789/We-ll-begin-to-run-out-of-oil-within-7-years (http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/32789/We-ll-begin-to-run-out-of-oil-within-7-years)

[Aptera#965]

Not a surprising statement. It's time for automakers to pull their heads out of the sand (and their asses) and start addressing this issue.

I'm just glad to we're trying to stay ahead of the game with the Aptera. I can really foresee having both an Aptera and a VentureOne in my garage next year....

[KarenRei]

He's entirely right: *conventional* oil sources are running out. But don't confuse "conventional oil" and "all oil". The era of light sweet crude is over. Welcome to the era of dirty syncrude. There's literally hundreds of years worth (bitumen, coal liquefaction, thermal depolymerization, oil shale, gas to liquids (including clathrates), etc), not even counting the fact that we can synthesize petroleum with nothing more than water, CO or CO2, and electricity or heat (Fisher-Tropsh or Sabatier synthesis). It's just pricey (as in, like our current prices) and dirty.

[Matthijs]

He's entirely right: *conventional* oil sources are running out. But don't confuse "conventional oil" and "all oil". The era of light sweet crude is over. Welcome to the era of dirty syncrude. There's literally hundreds of years worth (bitumen, coal liquefaction, thermal depolymerization, oil shale, gas to liquids (including clathrates), etc), not even counting the fact that we can synthesize petroleum with nothing more than water, CO or CO2, and electricity or heat (Fisher-Tropsh or Sabatier synthesis). It's just pricey (as in, like our current prices) and dirty.
Man this is shocking stuff!! We really really have to stop using oil. :(

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/6843
http://stoptarsands.wordpress.com/2008/01/16/alberta-crude-may-be-too-dirty-us-law-says/

[KarenRei]

Yeah, it's dirty stuff. But that's were our oil's going to be coming from, more and more, as the conventional stuff runs out. It's not going to be a rapid shift to most production being syncrude, but it's going to happen. By my calculations on EV conversions:

http://www.daughtersoftiresias.org/greenwiki/Electric_vehicle#Rate_of_adoption

Assuming a negligable percentage of new cars purchased are EVs in the first five years (years 0-4), 10% are EVs in the next five (years 5-9), 20% in the next five (years 10-14), 50% in the next ten (years 15-24), and 100% from there on out, with 8% of all vehicles are replaced per year, and with EVs and gasoline vehicles are equally likely to be replaced, with no government incentives or mandates for switching, it'll take almost 30 years for half of the US to switch over to EVs. Light sweet crude isn't going to carry the expanding demand for transportation fuels that long, even with deep sea fields and the arctic opening up.

[evansm76]

No way. There are plenty of good reasons to use less oil (most important: national security; reduce our dependence on foreign oil), but fear of running out of oil is not one of them. If anything, known oil reserves are growing not shrinking. 100 years from now, oil will still be in the ground and will have no value because alternatives will be cheaper.

http://www.worldlpgas.com/forums.php?id=2006_5

Regards,
Mark
Corona, CA
#1681, Typ-1h

[evolutionmovement]

This is a little like the end of the world announcements that crop up frequently, always with a different date. I think I read in the last couple weeks that Brazil had found a potentially huge oil reserve somewhere within their waters. But if this kind of thing scares people into finding a solution (or at least practicing better conservation), then I think it's not such a bad thing. I agree with Evansm76 that the number one reason to get off oil is reduce our dependence on foreign nations, many of which are not run by the loveliest of rulers.

Pioneering alternatives can help us stay at the top of the world in more than just military matters as well as gain us a more positive image in the world. Compared to most other industrialized nations, we still have cheap gas, but unlike the rest of the world, Americans aren't content to accept that and will fight to find a solution. It's the same attitude that won WWII - we ignore it as long as we can, but when we get poked into action, little can stop us. The key is unity. Trying to keep optimistic (which is a personal challenge for a misanthrope) - 01/20/09.