Affordable Aptera?

[Mr. Jackhammer]

To begin with, this is without a doubt the most beatiful car I have ever seen. The concept and even the features it comes loaded with, like the cameras and GPS, excite me! But, the price is still a bit appalling for a poor empty-pocketed fellow such as myself. My question is, is the price of the Aptera expected to RISE as it increases in familiarity with the general public, or will the price REDUCE as the kinks of mass-production are worked out? I hope for the latter, but I am really curious to find out if anyone knows what kind of direction the price is expected to curve in. :happy0025:

[aptera1213]

just my opinion, but

if they sell 3 to 5 thousand a year...the price stays highish

if they sell 10 thousand plus a year, the price comes down as they are making in bulk...

batteries should also get cheaper with both time and higher bulk buys...

so, if niche market, price is higher

if more mainstream, price comes down

of course this is also capitalism, so if demand is much higher than supply, the price will stay high also....

[Matthijs]

Well if Aptera wants to compete in the Automotive XPrize they will have to produce 10K units per year by 2010 to enter.

[KarenRei]

Over time, the price of the "safe" lithium ion batteries should fall significantly, which should reduce prices. And, of course, mass production of Apteras should reduce their price.

However, while the current price may seem expensive, think long term. If you're spending a few thousand dollars a year on gasoline, the extra initial expense is ultimately going to save you a lot of money in the long run.

[DonC]

If you're spending a few thousand dollars a year on gasoline, the extra initial expense is ultimately going to save you a lot of money in the long run.

Important and often overlooked point. Right now my car has been driven 144,000 miles. So let's assume that as the number of miles at a car's EOL. At current prices, the difference in operating costs attributable to gas between a standard gas car and a BEV is $33,120.

Of course some might say you should apply a discount for the time value of money but that would be at least evened out by the fact that gas prices are more likely to go up than down.

From this perspective the Aptera is "free".

I always say a BEV is like a digital camer. In the latter you get a camera and a lifetime of film. With the former you get a car and a lifetime of gas.

[Mr. Jackhammer]

DonC,

That is a great concept, thanks a lot that is a good way of looking at things! :)

[jstdadd]

Yeah, Don, I love that analogy. Can I use it without having to remember your name and attribution?

"the previous quote is attributed to DonC, a Junior Member at ApteraForum.com. 'Free' is a concept that may you may not understand in a capatalistic society. The term 'free' does not constitute a promise by DonC, JSTDADD or Aptera Motors that you will receive anything free. All Rights Reserved."

[DonC]

Yeah, Don, I love that analogy. Can I use it without having to remember your name and attribution?

"the previous quote is attributed to DonC, a Junior Member at ApteraForum.com. 'Free' is a concept that may you may not understand in a capatalistic society. The term 'free' does not constitute a promise by DonC, JSTDADD or Aptera Motors that you will receive anything free. All Rights Reserved."

No problems. You're actually free to use it without attribution -- it's a concept not an expression -- but given your response I'm thinking you probably won't have much to do with sales or marketing. :)

[jstdadd]

Don:

When I ran the numbers for the Aptera, I retire my F150 pickup as my daily commuter, and the savings in gas pays for my new Aptera, from the first month.

I commute 54 miles per day, and over the last 3 years I have averaged 20,000 miles on the truck. The F150 is paid for. The cost to me for gas at $4.00 per gallon, on 20,000 miles per year at 14.5 mpg is over $5500 per year in fuel only. I sell the pickup, netting me about $9,000, buy the Aptera financed at 5.19% (recent Bank of America Rate) for 60 months, and I net a $39 per month savings (even after electrical recharge costs are figured in.)

At 20,000 miles a year, the Aptera is free to me.

[DonC]

That's definitely a good deal. I was assuming 23 mpg and a longer period of time but the principle is the same. An additionaly bonus, should the Aptera prove reasonably reliable, is that (lack of) depreciation should be good, so at the end five years you'll have something to sell to buy the next one!

I do have one question though. Where the heck do you get your gas? On the coast we pay around $5 - actually high $4 range but it rounds to $5 rather than $4.50. (I don't buy gas that often but last week at an ordinarily inexpensive place it as $4.87/gal.).

[jstdadd]

I got gas earlier this week at Costco in Poway; $4.07

I just do the calculations with pessimistic numbers to keep within reason. I will be pleasantly surprised if I A) drive more, or B) gas prices go up.

[iamawake]

The problem with this postulation:

Right now my car has been driven 144,000 miles. So let's assume that as the number of miles at a car's EOL.

Why would you assume that your car's current mileage is the EOL for a car, unless your car is dead? Yet, you don't state it is dead, and instead speak to it as thought it were still in use. Further, the Aptera will need battery replacements every few years, which will be extraordinarily expensive.

I don't think that it should be looked at as something that saves money. I think people should merely do it because they should. IMO, at least.

[n_dawg]

Well, if by "every few years" you mean "every decade," then sure. Also, looking at the news it seems like we're in a large-format battery renaissance of sorts. I'd expect the price to have dropped / performance to have improved significantly by 2021

[KarenRei]

Well, if by "every few years" you mean "every decade,"

Or even less often, depending :)

Sadly, lots of people still seem to think all batteries are like lead-acid or laptop batteries.

[ApteraStorm]

I thought I remembered reading somewhere on the Aptera site that they were projecting to go profitable after some ridiculously low number of units (like 2000). If that's the case, one would think that the price would go down as the volume goes up.

[speculawyer]

I thought I remembered reading somewhere on the Aptera site that they were projecting to go profitable after some ridiculously low number of units (like 2000). If that's the case, one would think that the price would go down as the volume goes up.
Even more ridiculously low . . . I read somewhere that they planned to be profitable after 160 units.

[KarenRei]

Actually, I believe it was only 160 units.

Honestly, it's appeared to me that their aspirations have been growing as their rate of reservations has kept increasing. I don't think they really had an idea how much of a groundswell they were tapping into with this vehicle when they started out. Larger production volumes means more expense in gearing up to meet them, but greater profits and lower production costs in the long run.

[Vasil]

Ah, but such is the sacrifice of the Early Adopter...

Just remember what you won't be spending in gas and maintenance costs, provided a cost effective solution is determined for the batteries. :)

[johnvall]

No maintenance, wow, put your feet on the ground.

[danieloneil01]

Ok 5 bucks for rainx and a new car inscent.

[DonC]

The maintenance advantage for BEV's may not be so great because the ICE cars don't really need much maintenance these days. We bought a new car in July 06 and the only maintenance we've had is one oil change. Sort of like going from 100 mpg to 150 mpg. You don't save much gas because you're not using much to begin with.

That said, the motor should run forever.

[Vasil]

ICE vehicle maintenance:
• Oil change (oil + filters + service)
• Transmission fluid
• Fuel filters
• Occasional fuel system flush ("deposit" remover)
• Antifreeze/coolant
• A new battery every year or two
• Incandescent bulbs (headlights, turn signals, brake lights, reverse lights, etc) every year
• And everyone's favorite, REFUELING

Aptera vehicle maintance:
• New battery/batteries about every 100k miles
• LED bulbs (ever 5-15 years)

Common vehicle maintenance:
• Tires
• Wiper fluid
• Brake pads
• Cabin filters

So, yes, my comment still stands strong. Less maintenance on the Aptera.

[KarenRei]

There's a breakdown on the wiki. There are a number of things you might not have thought of -- drive belts/pulleys, the chance of various systems breaking (motor, charger, inverter, AC, StreetDeck, etc).

Yeah, the maintenance should be lower -- even significantly lower -- but it's not going to be *that* much lower. Things will still break.

[DonC]

To be accurate for total cost we'd have running costs, maintenance costs, and repair costs.

Gas would part of running costs as would the electricity you'd use to charge the Aptera battery. Obviously a huge advantage for an EV since the electricity should cost about 10% of what gas costs.

Maintenance would not be that different in dollar terms. This RAND study found a modest advantage for BEVs. Since the dollar value of maintenance for ICE cars is not very great, the dollar difference would likewise not be great. (The battery part is out of date but the maintenance issues are still good).

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1578/MR1578.ch4.pdf

Finally we get to repair costs. It seems unrealistic to expect a new company to turn out a car which is as reliable as one manufactured by the likes of Toyota, Honda, GM, or Ford. Those guys have been making cars for years. They are not dumb and they have gotten very good at what they do. Without the experience born from history, Aptera will make some mistakes that could have been avoided. Guaranteed. There is less to break on the Aptera but what there is is more likely to break.

Total them all up and the complete cost of operating an Aptera should be very favorable due to the huge advantage in running costs assuming -- and it's an assumption -- that Aptera turns out a reasonably reliable car.