Longer Term Future for Aptera

[ggodman]

I have been thinking about the big push for alternative vehicles of late with gas prices where the are and the Automotive X Prize etc. I want Aptera to succeed long term not just be a flash in the pan.

They have a very small head start over the conventional manufacturers and I hope they use that advantage to the limit. It is certainly looking like at this point 2010/2011 will be the year of the plug-in hybrid vehicle.

Aptera was initially going to do both vehicles at once which would have widened the audience, now we get the E, then the H a year later possibly at the same time as others are introducing their own solution such as the Chevy Volt.

Lets remember that the Aptera is really a two seat vehicle of non-conventional design. Granted that this is for efficiency in both the regulatory and aerodynamics area but the market for a four passenger vehicle will always be larger than for a two passenger vehicle. It is clear that existing manufacturers with their vast dealer networks will be at a great advantage going forward.

Look at this quote from the GM Website about the Volt.

---------------------------
We have devoted significant resources to this project: Over 200 engineers and 50 designers are working on the Volt alone, and another 400 are working on related subsystems and electric components. That's how important we think it is, and that's how much stock we place in the future of extended-range electric vehicles like the Chevy Volt.
---------------------------

GM has more people working on the Volt than Aptera will probably have when they are in full production. GM even has commercials indirectly about it on the Olympics already, the Aptera is turning away press coverage (free advertising) and they will not have the money to market the car in any significant way at their current finance level.

Don't misunderstand me, I'm getting my typ-1e (res 150) as soon as I can and I think I will be very happy with it but thinking about it longer term, I would not be surprised to find Aptera had gone the way of the Tucker by 2012.

Thoughts?

[APTERA 2356]

I think of the aptera as the model A of 2012 , inovative and different than anything else.

It will evolve as does everything does.
but it seems to be the only vehicle dareing enough to put function first and allow its non traditional form to be loved or hated

[garygid]

Hopefully Aptera will be well established in California and making
over 5000 vehicles a year by the end of 2009.

Then, with the "1h" selling briskly in 2010, the production capability growing
to over 10,000 vehicles per year, and Aptera's expansion into a few more
states during 2010, they should have the resources to get the 4-wheel
4-seat "Palomar" out in 2011.

During 2011, Aptera might expand sales to the western half of the USA,
and maybe open select markets in the East.

Of course, all of this requires the "1e" to be successful. As the production
"1e" is introduced, the initial user and press reactions to its performance
and features will be critical. Thus, they have to "get it right" on the "1e".

It appears that the Tucker effort was killed through legal maneuvering
by people that did not want him to become successful competition.

I intend to do all that I can to help Aptera succeed.
What can you do to help Aptera?

[db_lo]

They should not go public, else risk being taken over.

[Dubito]

They should not go public, else risk being taken over.
Actually by going public that you risk someone else gaining controlling interest in your company.

[evolutionmovement]

And even shutting you out. Happened to Gerald Wiegart and his Vector car company.

[gistmarrs]

Not if you offer 49% or less of the company shares publicly. Fambro can maintain the majority.

[saruchan]

Staying private allows a company to be lean and make decisions quickly with a vision for the future and most importantly, use common sense. That is their biggest advantage. Public companies in nearly every case put their shareholders first and make decisions to make themselves look good for the current financial quarter. Hardly any are willing to spend money today to ensure the future. Almost every public company I have had dealings with is top heavy with bean counters and managers who cannot see beyond their own feet.

[evolutionmovement]

I agree - any legendary car companies were founded and run effectively by one man who called the shots, not committees. Bugatti, Ferrari, Porsche, Lotus, Ford are well-known names and there are many more known less outside the car industry, but legends to people who know cars. When the founders died, the companies all suffered, losing their way unless taken over by another visionary founder. In the cases of TVR and Aston Martin, the companies really came alive under a later owner rather than a founder (Peter Wheeler and David Brown respectively, though it could be argued Aston Martin is booming again thanks to Ford, it's because they infused it with the money to capitalize on David Brown's legacy, but I'm happy to see David Richards in there now), but this was still down to the vision of one person. Committees are how juggernauts like Ford and GM get into trouble building bad product for so long and not anticipating trends. Small companies run by committee is a near-certain death sentence and a quest for irrelevance. Committees are made up of people interested primarily in short-term gain and tend to know or care little for the industry itself. A small company can only survive in a niche, made up of a singular vision, something a car watered-down by committee to appeal to everyone (and, therefore, assuring it truly appeals to nobody at the passionate level it needs to) could never do.

[chasmccl]

gistmarrs

You make an excellent point. 49% would provide excellent capitalization, but still allow Fambro to maintain control, assuming that he still holds that much stock after having divested himself of some options to private investors, executives, etc. In any event, particularly in light of the reported Google involvement, an excellent model exists for having a public auction, ala Google, for some level of equity capitalization. I'd personally like to see that opportunity preferentially involve those of us who have believed enough in Aptera to make the initial $500 deposits prior to the 1st commercial delivery dates of type 1e later this year.

Charlie McClain :happy0005:

[rotus8]

If you stay private you can avoid the Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) accounting rules, which are a royal PITA, believe me. It costs my small company over a million dollars a year just to be in compliance.

[DonC]

Trikes are and will probably remain a niche market. I think the Aptera is tres cool but it's very different and the truth of the matter is that most people don't like different.

Then again lots of car companies make niche products. I'd argue that Porsche is such a company. Small volume and (disregard the Cayenne) focused on one type of vehicle.

Having limited production runs also doesn't mean you can't be profitable. Didn't I read somewhere that Aptera can break even at 600 cars? I'm sure they can sell twice that the first year, assuming of course they can make them. Here's hoping.

[BobFox321]

Here is what I have done and continue to do to help Aptera.
1. Shown all my family, friends and associates the aptera.com site.
2. Called members of Congress (those with an interest in GREEN) attention to this innovative vehicle. Some have responded.
3. Had APTERA included in county government environmental plans on planning for the acquisition of GREEN vehicles.
4. Involved in promoting future Aptera manufacturing plants in an area with a large and excellent university, economical new housing, reasonable property prices, economic human resource availability, low taxes, major highway, transportation hub etc.
5. Informed the Mayor and Council and Supervisors of its viability.
6. Bragged about Google's investment and the other $22 million.
7. Send in reader comments in everything involving GREEN.
8. Volunteered to Aptera to help them set up in this area.
9. Preparing to present GREEN to a friend that owns 13 NEW car dealerships in the area.
10. Willing to take full responsibility for the successful sales and maintenance for an entire state.
11. Trying to economically plan ways to cut APTERA costs down so that fully loaded APTERAs will be under $22k instead of $30k.
12. Constantly thinking of new ways to MAKE ABSOLUTELY 110% SURE THAT APTERA SUCCEEDS.

[APTERA 2356]

Great job BobFox321,

The other thing all early adopters can do is to drive courteously, be informed about your new EV and share information with enthusiasm. and contact your government representatives and encourage them to support the green laws now being presented.

Every early Aptera owner will become a representative of Aptera motors, make an effort to be a positive influence for EV's and Aptera and maybe more incentives will be passed on to consumers.

:happy0025:

[bernie]

The more quickly fuel prices rise, the more successful Aptera will be. The key is the Aptera design compromises everything else for efficiency and practicality, while Volt and Tesla are both compromising efficiency and/or practicality for style. If fuel prices rise steadily (say $1/year), it's going to be a race to see who makes the most efficient, cost-effective, and practical car. Aptera is already there, while other companies will be playing catch-up. OTOH if fuel prices retreat and remain low(er) for an extended period of time, sales of Aptera may stagnate. In that case, I'd expect Aptera to be bought by another company.

[garygid]

The key is the Aptera design compromises everything else for efficiency and practicality. ...

No, I think that Aptera is very big on Safety ... and on related features,
such as the 3-TV Eyes-Forward system, and the fish-eye Backup TV Camera.
Also, I suspect that there is considerable effort going into passenger comfort.

[Eyelawdoc]

I also think that the Aptera is very big on style and design as well! Its fresh and unique approach is lightyears ahead of anything else on the road. There is nothing like it anywhere!

[bernie]

No, I think that Aptera is very big on Safety ... and on related features,
such as the 3-TV Eyes-Forward system, and the fish-eye Backup TV Camera.
Also, I suspect that there is considerable effort going into passenger comfort.

I'll consider safety and comfort to be aspects of practicality and the eyes-forward system as part of efficiency.

The point I was trying to make is Aptera was smart to design the most efficient, lowest-cost design practical for a 120 mile range, 85 mph max speed, 10 second 0-60 mph car. As the cost of gas (and energy in general) increases, the Aptera design will become increasingly desirable, and no other car will be able to top the Aptera. Any attempt to exceed the efficiency of the Aptera will result in... the Aptera.

This is the situation the Toyota Prius enjoys today. At its introduction, it had a limited market because 45 mpg was less important to most buyers than other considerations, such as aesthetics and performance. As the price of gas has risen, nothing else matters BUT efficiency. Five years after the introduction of the current Prius, it is STILL tops in efficiency. If Aptera survives it's first few years, I expect it will enjoy the King of the Hill position that the Prius enjoys today.

This was most vividly illustrated to me by the shifting attitude of a close acquaintance, who drove an Infiniti G35 and would give a second glance to a Prius a few months ago. As he realizes how much he's paying for gas, and the depreciation of the G35, he's now desperate the sell the G35 and buy a Prius. A total reversal in car-buying approach.

[iwannaptera]

This is the situation the Toyota Prius enjoys today. At its introduction, it had a limited market because 45 mpg was less important to most buyers than other considerations, such as aesthetics and performance. As the price of gas has risen, nothing else matters BUT efficiency. Five years after the introduction of the current Prius, it is STILL tops in efficiency. If Aptera survives it's first few years, I expect it will enjoy the King of the Hill position that the Prius enjoys today.


Maybe. But remember that the honda insight gets/got way better gas mileage than the prius. Maybe it came out too early, before gas got expensive, I don't know. But in my mind the insight and the aptera will be received similarly. They both have "wierd" styling. They both will be fairly expensive for a normal high mileage 2 seater. They both will work very well for a niche group of buyers. Hopefully aptera sales are better than insight's

According to this link:
http://www.insightcentral.net/KB/sales.html
sales were 17; 3,788; 4,726; and 2,216 in years 1999 2000 2001 2002 . Man that sucks!

[DonC]

Those numbers might be very bad for Honda but they'd be good for Aptera. They've said the break even point is 600 cars. I'm not sure they'll be able to make 10,000 in three years.

[futura]

I suppose the best thing we can do when our Apteras start populating the streets is keep them out of trouble. Probably impossible, but I get concerned when I see stories like this (http://www.apteraforum.com/showthread.php?t=1494) one on the Tesla getting rear ended and the "quietness" being questioned.
When the first wheel pod clipping incident get reported or (hopefully not) injurious collision, the Aptera's "radical styling" or 3-wheel "instability" will be castigated by the usual feckless media hackery.
The longer we can keep Aptera off the police blotters the better for the brand.

[iwannaptera]

Those numbers might be very bad for Honda but they'd be good for Aptera. They've said the break even point is 600 cars. I'm not sure they'll be able to make 10,000 in three years.


Those numbers are bad for Honda, and maybe even aptera. Those are nationwide numbers (afaict). Divide by 6 for california only. I know Aptera plans on expanding out of state, but it's not going to happen in the next year or two and maybe even three.... Of course gas was less than $3/gal back then.

[garygid]

One of the very best ways to help Aptera have a good future will be to drive cautiously, thoughtfully, and defensively so that the "e" earns an "almost spotless" safety record, avoiding the bad press like the first drivers of the Tesla have already earned.

Simply planning ahead to not become stranded, out of "e", to avoid headlines like "Another 'dead' Aptera brings freeway to a three-hour Standstill". Help avoid the cry for over-reactive laws, like laws prohibiting EVs from using any controlled-access highways at all.

Yes, we will all be in the spotlight, like it or not!
Let's become known as the "Courteous who Care" drivers who always allow a little extra time and space to make the world a better place.

[APTERA 2356]

Gary make a very good point,
In addition many insurers base the rate which you are charged on the history of claims
made by the owners of a specific model, so you may also be saving yourself money on insurence.

[Matthijs]

Insurance is really different from where I live (Holland) here all drivers have a personal safety record combined with age. So when you are 18 (Youngest age to start driving) and you cause an accident in your first year you will pay allot more then someone in his thirties with a perfect record. You can only build up a record when you own your own vehicle. So sometimes young drivers have cars registered on their parents name to cheaply insure the car and start create there own record later on. Also the vehicle is of some importance but not that much that in will influence vehicle choice.

[APTERA 2356]

Matt,
Those things are also in the formula for pricing but if 100 Aptera's are on the road and 50 claim accidents the other 50 will be charged more also.
Their claim is that this must be an inherantly more dangerous vehicle if there are lots of accidents.

just another reason to charge people more even if they are safe drivers

[evolutionmovement]

The Insight came out at the wrong time. Today, the value of used ones on the market have doubled or tripled what they were just two years ago. I remember dealers practically giving new ones away in the early '00's. Gas was well under $2, the cars were slow, only 2 seats, made with 'scary' unproven technology, and weird looking to your average buyer (and not in a tough-guy kind of way that might have sold to the lizard brains), selling in a market that was exploding with bigger-is-better SUVs. Back then, I was expecting either this economic hit or people buying tractor trailers and used military vehicles as commuters to keep up with the other tools who couldn't get a vehicle big enough to fill the pointlessness within them.

[DonC]

Those numbers are bad for Honda, and maybe even aptera. Those are nationwide numbers (afaict). Divide by 6 for california only. I know Aptera plans on expanding out of state, but it's not going to happen in the next year or two and maybe even three.... Of course gas was less than $3/gal back then.
The numbers are nationwide sales but I suspect 80% of them were in CA. But I think the problem for Aptera is not demand. The waiting list which is only CA (except for sleazy Karen in IA -- only kidding) shows the demand is there. The issue is going to be: can they produce enough cars?

But yes, a two seater is a niche vehicle. Then make it a two seater electric. Then make it a two seater electric trike with a weird design. You definitely have a car that has NICHE written all over it.

However, you can say the same thing about Porsche. Being a niche player doesn't mean you can't be successful. Remember: Aptera has said it will break even at 600 cars. They will be able to sell a lot more than that.

[evolutionmovement]

Porsche is the most profitable car company (in profit/unit sold). Profitable enough to buy a large stake in VW. It's knowing your niche and consistently hitting your marks as well as making a little go a long way. As much as Porsche's style bores me, I can't deny the success of evolutionary style that reflects their heritage (and allows parts commonality if leaving them look all very similar) with continual technological advances. Just look at the horsepower and mileage figures for the new DI 911. Simply amazing and I'm no great Porschephile. They also don't license themselves out as pathetically as Ferrari. The Aptera, so far, seems to have nailed its niche dead on as well. Barring reliability issues, the product is there and as long as management can match it, they should be able to do well.

[Carbon Saver II]

Porsche is an interesting study. They nearly went bankrupt and would have had they not adopted Japanese manufacturing techniques. Seems that Porsche had designed all the subsystems indepently, with separate wire harnesses for AC, foglights, etc. and when they came off the line and did not pass QC they parked them to diagnois later. That sucked up all the cash, because the problem got to be that they were buying more parking lots to store the dead inventory. It cost too much to figure out the problems, so they'd build another one.

They hired Japanese auto consultants to explain why a tested wiring harness with all the options already wired was easier then fits several subsystems and then trying to figure out what was wrong. Sure you wasted the wire for the options not on that car, but you cut down complications on the assembly line and potential for errors and QC defects.

Simply mistake, big lesson.

My all time favor is VW paying near $800 million for Rolls-Royce only to end up with Bentley because they had not checked in the due diligence process (financial guy, have done due diligence) if the Rolls-Royce automotive group had the right to that car's name. They did not. Rolls-Royce aircraft owned the name to the car and subsequently sold it to BMW.

Other peoples lesson are good to learn from....

[evolutionmovement]

The guy at Vickers apparently didn't like VW. I find it funny he'd sell to BMW, then. Guess there were no hard feelings about that whole Battle of Britain thing.