11/21/08 - For 22 Competitors, the Auto X Prize Race Is On - wheels.blogs.nytimes.com

[Matthijs]

http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/21/la-auto-show-for-22-competitors-the-auto-x-prize-race-is-on/

Marques McCammon, chief marketing officer for Aptera, said one of the best aspects of the Auto X Prize competition was “the opportunity to network with other innovators and the investment sector.” He added: “Being connected gives you a greater level of visibility.”
He added that the two-passenger Aptera 2e (http://www.progressiveautoxprize.org/teams/aptera) (formerly the Typ-1) can travel more than 100 miles on a single charge and offers the equivalent of more than 200 miles a gallon. He says the cars will be on sale by the end of 2009, with a hybrid version to follow six to 12 months later.

So we can say it's gonna be a year later before the first Aptera's will hit the road. :scared0011:

[aptera1213]

maybe...but i focus on the "on sale"

it will be "on sale" for the buying public by the end of 2009


but, hopefully, that is because it will take them till the end of 2009 to fill all the orders by the pre-existing customers (us)

[aptera1213]

http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/21/la-auto-show-for-22-competitors-the-auto-x-prize-race-is-on/



So we can say it's gonna be a year later before the first Aptera's will hit the road. :scared0011:



this from the aptera newsletter of 11/19/08 (really 11/21/08 since that is when it first got to email):

This is where we will complete the first 2e by the end of December, followed by thousands more during the next several years."


so some will be sold around the first of the year to the early adopters...

[Camerapilot]

I found this to be very interesting!

http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/21/la-auto-show-for-22-competitors-the-auto-x-prize-race-is-on/

and this:

http://www.progressiveautoxprize.org/teams/aptera

Dan

[Don]

Well, if these two sources are credible, it looks as if Aptera Motors is running a year behind schedule. What happens after a year? Another delay? I would think that many people would lose interest by then,. It may be even longer until the gas/electric version hits the street. Fambro has said that the Aptera will acheive a distance of 120 miles, now it seems that that has been whittled down to 100 miles. Even the original claim of 300 miles has now been reduced to 200 miles. When people start misquoting figures altering claims, I tend to not trust them. I may be wrong as wrong can be, yet, something is not ringing true with this company.

[jdbgn]

"Marques McCammon, chief marketing officer for Aptera, said one of the best aspects of the Auto X Prize competition was “the opportunity to network with other innovators and the investment sector.” He added: “Being connected gives you a greater level of visibility.”

He added that the two-passenger Aptera 2e (formerly the Typ-1) can travel more than 100 miles on a single charge and offers the equivalent of more than 200 miles a gallon. He says the cars will be on sale by the end of 2009, with a hybrid version to follow six to 12 months later."
The above is a copy from the following.
http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2008...ze-race-is-on/

"By the end of 2009"?????

Anybody care to comment?

[danieloneil01]

WOW, by the end of 2009. And the hybrid 12 months later. Better do something quick or this could turn out to be a huge fiasco.

[Spank Daddy]

I'm sure it was a mistake, maybe misquoted or just a "new guy" mistake.
Here is what Chris said in the newsletter:

"(Co-founder) Steve (Fambro) and I love living in San Diego and we're dedicated to being a major component of the local business community," says co-founder Chris Anthony, a Nashville, TN native who moved west 8 years ago. "We've now opened two facilities in North County, with the Vista space being large enough to accommodate further expansion when we begin full-time production. This is where we will complete the first 2e by the end of December, followed by thousands more during the next several years."

Either way, it would be nice if Aptera would be specific about 2009 production.

[ycfu]

It likely I will ask for refund. Aptera needs to start the production very soon or it will be too late. Several Chinese and Indian car companies will be selling EV in US by 2010. One of the many Chinese EVs (BYD F3DM) will be on sale next month in China for US$22k. This car (BYD F3DM) has better spec than Volt. When these EVs reach US in 2010 they will be cheap and mature. BYD has over 100,000 employees.

[esmith]

Like I said elsewhere, there's no contradiction. They will complete the first 2e by the end of December and hope to start delivering to actual customers by Q3-Q4 2009.

If you want to cancel, do cancel. Many people will cancel anyway because of bad economy and $2 gas.

As far as BYD, I'm very skeptical. I'd give you more than even money that it's vaporware. So far the only thing Chinese auto manufacturers were successful at was copying Western designs and selling them as their own (see Chery QQ, Great Wall Peri). The day Chinese manage to beat both Americans and Japanese in car design, I'll call my broker and transfer all my savings into the Chinese stock market.

[speculawyer]

Like I said elsewhere, there's no contradiction. They will complete the first 2e by the end of December and hope to start delivering to actual customers by Q3-Q4 2009.

I don't really follow this . . . do they need to let them age in a cellar or something?

Perhaps it was a misprint/mistake and they meant to say 2008? Or perhaps they know they have a years worth of orders already in the pipeline so they don't want to say 2008 knowing that anyone who places an order won't get it until 2009?

[ycfu]

My plan is to upgrade my Prius with Hymotion first and buy an EV ASAP. It seems Aptera won't be the first practical EV in US market. BYD may be real because Warren Buffet invested.

[esmith]

I don't really follow this . . . do they need to let them age in a cellar or something?


Have you heard that GM is planning to launch a fifth-generation Chevy Camaro?

They have presented the concept in January '07. In July '08 they have released final specs and a bunch of real-world pictures of an actual completed Gen 5 Camaro. Mass production is slated to begin in February '09 with first deliveries in March or April.

That's how long it takes to get from the prototype to mass production.

And no, it's not because executives of GM are incompetent.

Camaros will be produced in somewhat greater volume than Apteras, but GM didn't have to start from scratch, they had an existing auto plant that they could retool.

Aptera does not even have the final prototype of 2e yet. For the following reasons: 1) it shows a computer rendering of a 2e rather than a photo, and 2) the newsletter clearly states that they intend to "complete the first 2e by the end of December" (by completing, they must mean assembling by hand, without the aid of conveyor).

[speculawyer]

Aptera does not even have the final prototype of 2e yet. For the following reasons: 1) it shows a computer rendering of a 2e rather than a photo, and 2) the newsletter clearly states that they intend to "complete the first 2e by the end of December" (by completing, they must mean assembling by hand, without the aid of conveyor).
I think they'll all be by hand for a while . . . they'll have N different workstations. I don't think they'll have a conveyor at all.

And if they really are not going to deliver anything to customers until 2009, they are really misleading a lot of people.
When are you starting production?

Our goal is to begin production of the all-electric in late 2008 and the hybrid in late 2009.


"We've now opened two facilities in North County, with the Vista space being large enough to accommodate further expansion when we begin full-time production. This is where we will complete the first 2e by the end of December, followed by thousands more during the next several years."

[IamIan]

BEWARE OF RANT!!!

Read at your own risk ( of fatigue ):rolleye0003:

I don't think they are misleading anybody... some people are projecting what they want on top of what is actually being said... expectations are just that ... time tables are just that... nothing more nothing less...

In production does not = for sale... for sale does not = delivered.

stuff happens that delays time tables and expectations ... you can try to make up for lost time in other parts of the process but you might end up behind schedule ... that is just reality... try to get a house built and demand a 100% guarantee ( like they owe you $1,000,000 if they are off by just 1 minute ) of a specific day... see what it does to your costs if they will even give it to you.

If you want to cancel your spot feel free... there are plenty of other people to replace you ... who would be happy to be bumped up in line ... than later when they get the product you can go back to the end of the line.... or you can just read about how great the product is and how everybody loves it and by then the waiting list will be 10x longer.

When you buy a building you can't just go in an start building stuff the next day... even if you want to... you have to wait for permits... than after everything is built people like fire marshals come buy to do a final inspection... they might not like the size of the fire extinguisher in a certain location ... or the type of paint you put on a certain wall... and they have the power to shut you down and fine you until you fix those issues to their satisfaction... so going into this process it is normal to make projections ... based on what you think might happen and you'll have a range of when you expect to be done... that doesn't mean that if those projections are off by 10% and it takes you 13.2 months instead of 12 months that you are misleading people or anything like that.

Even after the equipment is all complete and setup and approved ... you still have expected time tables of your materials arriving... which may be off due to vendors or shippers ... and when those materials arrive they might not be exactly what you ordered... or they might not be in good condition from the shipping... so you have to include a time table of expected usable material which can also be off even with no fault of your own.

Even after you have the materials and equipment all setup you then have to make sure everyone is properly trained on this new production line... that takes time as well and again there are expectation time tables ... but those can again be off to no fault of your own.

even after equipment , materials, and personnel are all ready to go and you fire up the production line for the first time... you include expected time table to fix any issues that might come up. from the first run through.... and again you guessed it time tables and expectations.

When you have the first products of this new production line you should test them thoroughly to make sure they came out the way you designed / intended / wanted... within tolerance ... this is another expectation and time table.... especially important step for a new company with a new product like Aptera.

Even at this point you have your first products to your satisfaction it does not mean that there are not still restrictions by the government about getting these products tested... just because the Aptera isn't legally required to do everything a "Car" is.... does not mean that there are no legal requirements at all... and again guess what... expectations and time tables.

Even after everything is done and people's checks have cleared you still have to ship the products...

-----------------

Gas prices will go back up it is just a matter of time.... those who do cancel with Aptera because they think gasoline will be under $4 per gallon for years to come will be wrong.

Current gas prices are just the result of supply and demand... people actually reduced their gasoline usage when gas was up at $4+ a gallon... oil companies want to turn x amount of profits per year... so they sold more at a lower price in order to net less profit per barrel but the same or more profits per year... there is a market delay ... so by the time the price of oil barrel was dropping because people were buying less gasoline... it was several months later and by then people were already in the mind set of reducing ... so even though the price then dropped people did not immediately jump back to buying the same amounts they had previously... and even when people do get back to buying the same amounts they did previously ... even then there will be another market delay before the prices slowly rise back up to where they were and then higher... We had a price spike above the trend.. and now we have a price drop below the trend... the two balance / average out ... and by ~2010 expect to see ~$4 to ~$5 per gallon gasoline again.... but next time people won't be as shocked by it as much so they won't react as much and they won't have to spike the price back down as much as they did this time.

If you want Gasoline to be cheap ...don't use any... the less the demand is the lower the market tolerable profit margin is... then as resources are used up it cost more and more for production and so it becomes harder and hard to turn the same $1 of profit... eventually you reach a point where the price generally stabilizes with only minor fluctuations... that stead state will only happen to fuel when we can make it from raw materials as fast as we use it... and we no longer require the prior geological process to pre-do allot of the work for us... Oil is cheap because you don't have to pay for the energy content that goes into it... when you do... like you have to pay for the renewable energy plants... then you get the ability to eventually reach steady prices.

[jstdadd]

It likely I will ask for refund. Aptera needs to start the production very soon or it will be too late. Several Chinese and Indian car companies will be selling EV in US by 2010. One of the many Chinese EVs (BYD F3DM) will be on sale next month in China for US$22k. This car (BYD F3DM) has better spec than Volt. When these EVs reach US in 2010 they will be cheap and mature. BYD has over 100,000 employees.

Yeah, well...I won't be jumping in line to buy an Indian or Chinese import before an American-made electric vehicle. I am old enough to remember the success of the Yugo.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugo#U.S._history

[jstdadd]

Gas prices will go back up it is just a matter of time.... those who do cancel with Aptera because they think gasoline will be under $4 per gallon for years to come will be wrong.

Current gas prices are just the result of supply and demand... people actually reduced their gasoline usage when gas was up at $4+ a gallon... oil companies want to turn x amount of profits per year... so they sold more at a lower price in order to net less profit per barrel but the same or more profits per year... there is a market delay ... so by the time the price of oil barrel was dropping because people were buying less gasoline... it was several months later and by then people were already in the mind set of reducing ... so even though the price then dropped people did not immediately jump back to buying the same amounts they had previously... and even when people do get back to buying the same amounts they did previously ... even then there will be another market delay before the prices slowly rise back up to where they were and then higher... We had a price spike above the trend.. and now we have a price drop below the trend... the two balance / average out ... and by ~2010 expect to see ~$4 to ~$5 per gallon gasoline again.... but next time people won't be as shocked by it as much so they won't react as much and they won't have to spike the price back down as much as they did this time.

If you want Gasoline to be cheap ...don't use any... the less the demand is the lower the market tolerable profit margin is... then as resources are used up it cost more and more for production and so it becomes harder and hard to turn the same $1 of profit... eventually you reach a point where the price generally stabilizes with only minor fluctuations... that stead state will only happen to fuel when we can make it from raw materials as fast as we use it... and we no longer require the prior geological process to pre-do allot of the work for us... Oil is cheap because you don't have to pay for the energy content that goes into it... when you do... like you have to pay for the renewable energy plants... then you get the ability to eventually reach steady prices.

On the first part of your RANT: Right on, Dude! If most people even had the first CLUE of what it takes to bring even a simple product on-line, they could appreciate a lot more the fact that they can even AFFORD to buy a technologically advanced product. Aptera scores really high on the technologically-advanced scoreboard. I have worked for two startups that went broke trying to introduce an advanced product at a reasonable price, even though there was an existing market ready and able to accept the product.

Regarding the part of your post I quoted: Gas prices will go up with a VENGEANCE. Don't expect the Saudi princes to stay placated when gas hits $30 per barrel. As soon as the demand resumes, they will be happy to charge $150 a barrel for the stuff.

Regarding the second part of your post I quoted: We are a gas-hungry set of societies in the Western world, and especially in the USA. I for one am happy to do my part to quit using gas, and I will happily be an innovator when Aptera delivers my Aptera-2e, or whatever they call it by then. Chances are I can even maintain it myself, unlike my gas-guzzlers (I can't even SEE the spark plugs on my two Fords.)

<RANT-MODE>
My own rant: forget about the government stepping in to save us, the real energy revolution is when we, the consumers, do something positive to stop the bleeding. Using the Aptera is a first step in my small consumer existence. It will cut my family petroleum use by 2/3 starting the day I drive it home. It will likely be the lowest energy-use 2-passenger motor vehicle produced for a long time, in common use. (Yes, I know somebody has a hybrid moped somewhere - India will thrive using them.)

</RANT-MODE>