6/29/09 - Only $4 Gas Moves Car Demand Immediately - cars.com

[c0mp13x]

http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2009/06/carscom-survey-only-4-gas-moves-car-demand-immediately.html

Cars.com Survey: Only $4 Gas Moves Car Demand Immediately

In a survey conducted by Cars.com, 40% of car shoppers said they would consider purchasing a new fuel-efficient car right away if gas were over $4 a gallon. Another 41% said they would pick a more efficient car the next time they were ready to buy a car.

When the price was just slightly less, between $3.75 and $4 a gallon, the number of those willing to upgrade right away dropped to 29%.

These numbers may not seem huge, but compared with last year, when gas prices actually were $4 a gallon, only 28% of respondents said they would make the switch right away at $4, and only 16% said they would do so at $3.75-$4.

On the other end of the spectrum, asked what they would do with gas prices at their current rate — between $2.50 and $2.75 — an overwhelming majority, 64%, said they wouldn’t consider a more fuel-efficient vehicle at all. Only 28% said they would pick a more efficient model the next time they were ready to buy a new car.

The survey was conducted online in June 2009 with a random sample of 1,088 men and women more than 18 years of age. The margin of error is +/- 3%.
FYI: Gas is $3/gal right now in SoCal (6/30/09):happy0025:

[JimmyDreams]

Some people have the shortest attention spans.

When gas continues to go up, they'll wring their hands over why they JUST bought another SUV.

Sad.

[TheAeronut]

Yep... The average US consumer is a MORON! They can't see past what they want TODAY - much less think about what it might mean the day after tomorrow.

It makes me crazy how the average American (probably most of the rest of the world too) CAN NOT or WILL NOT think. Must be too much hard work.

Sorry, I guess this turned into a bit of a rant. I will post anyway. Maybe I just need to blow off a bit of steam.

Hey!!! What about steam cars? :-D

J.P.

[speculawyer]

Yep... The average US consumer is a MORON! They can't see past what they want TODAY - much less think about what it might mean the day after tomorrow.

It makes me crazy how the average American (probably most of the rest of the world too) CAN NOT or WILL NOT think. Must be too much hard work.
Yep. People need to think about what the average price of gas will be during their ownership of the vehicle and how much gas costs when they plan to sell the vehicle since a gaz guzzler won't be worth much to sell if gas prices are high. When gas cleared $4 last year, the resale value of old used gas sippers went way up.

This is why electric vehicles are cost efficient RIGHT NOW when subsidies are taken into account. If they were available on the market, people should be buying them. But highway speed EVs are generally not available and even if they were, I suspect people will be too stupid to do the math.

Edit: Someone really needs to do a spreadsheet on this to run the numbers. Even with a great model, it is impossible to perfectly calculate the relative advantage/disadvantage of buying an EV since one can never know future interest rates, future gas prices, future electricity prices, etc.

But a good model would take into account:
-The increased upfront price of an EV over a gas car
-The subsidy available to reduce that upfront price
-The financing cost of paying for that extra upfront price (the lost interest on that extra money paid if you pay cash or the increased interest payments if you finance the car)
-The maintenance savings of an EV over a gas car
-The price of gas of each year during the ownership of the car and the annual gas operating cost based on the car's MPG
-The price of electricity during the ownership of the car and annual electricity operating cost based on the cars's Miles per watt

Such a model would assume ownership for the entire lifetime of the car. Trying to account for selling the car at some point really makes things difficult . . . how do you determine the resale value of some gas & electric car at a future date? You'd be making a wild guess. BUT . . . this might actually be a non factor . . . the relative resale price of a gas car and an electric car would probably be heavily dependent upon the price of gas at the time of the sale since the used market would account for that. If gas prices are high, the gas car would lose less value. If gas prices are low, the electric car would lose less value. This is similar to the relative gas/electricity operating costs of the two vehicles, so this factor could largely be a wash.

I not good with spreadsheet . . . can anyone create such an excel spreadsheet? I think it would allow for a great gas2.0/autoblogreen/etc article . . . if the numbers support it, the article could be titled "Electric vehicles are economically viable TODAY with current subsidies". I could write up an article.

[NmGfan]

I dunno about consumers as morons. Some are actually awake and remember last summer with nearly $5/gal gasoline. My experience lately has been more questions than ever. As the price of gasoline has floated up over $3.00/gal in the Bay Area, I can hardly get out of the parking lot at 7-11 without two or three people asking:
"where did you get it?"
"how long does it take to charge?"
"what is the range?"
"can you drive it on the freeway?"
"how much did it cost?"
Yesterday two guys in our office building quizzed me for about 30 minutes with the same questions. Their company works in the commercial solar engineering industry and is getting a lot of questions about solar based charging systems for corporate parking areas. Hmmm...

:happy0025:

[Danny]

Generally speaking I agree with the statements above, but those of us who read this forum are those who are already convinced of the best solution. We have read lots of articles on a varity of related subjects ranging from peak oil, hydrogen cars, global warming, to carbon taxes. Not everyone has done that much reading nor do they have the financial capability to purchase the more expensive electric vehicles. To go electric means, in general, that they have to spend more and get less. Not only that, but the vehicles are not readily available yet. Our obvious solution is still a new unproven solution. I say unproven because many people wait years before buying a new technology. They want someone else to be the guinea pig. That's not to say that they aren't getting some sense of change in the wind, but to call them "morons" seems a little bit harsh. I suspect that most people would love to go green, but when it comes down to spending a significant amount of hard earned money, they are more likely to go with standard products. They may not be the best choices in the long run, but the long run is still very cloudy to the general public. They probably don't really know exactly what to do to go green. So, until the path is just a little bit clearer, they will continue to do what they have always done. It's up to us to help them see the light.

To follow the expense part just a little, if you have to pay the larger price right up front and you have to finance it, you will be paying interest on the whole thing. If on the other hand you buy a cheaper ICE vehicle, you pay less interest but still have to buy gas. Since the long range crystal ball gas price is also less clear to the general public, they might think there is still a chance that the prices might stabalize. I think we on this forum probably expect the prices to go up dramatically over the next few years, but that's still only a best guess. It could still take more years than we think which would make the old standard ICE engine more economical in the long run. Mind you, I don't think it will play out that way, but who knows what the general public sees?

[hill]

Yep... The average US consumer is a MORON! They can't see past what they want TODAY - much less think about what it might mean the day after tomorrow.

It makes me crazy how the average American (probably most of the rest of the world too) CAN NOT or WILL NOT think. Must be too much hard work.

. . . . . . snip



Yep,
Taking the moron question to the next level (of being prepared) . . . I wonder how many here have emergency supplies on hand (in the car and/or house). Extra food, water, medical supplies etc which won't be needed unless there's a big earthquake or other catastrophe. Maybe liquid assets if banks fail, or backup electricity plans. They say less than 5% try to stay ahead of the curve. It was pretty evident when hurricane katrina hit ... and grocery stores etc got cleaned out, that theft seems to be the #1 plan (shaking head). I don't want to sound like a survivalist ... but we DO have a nice house in Montana too, if anyone needs a place to hunker down.
;)

[Danny]

I'm trying to build an Earthship (solar house made of tires) in Texas. Does that count? (http://home.roadrunner.com/~thequarry/) By the time it's done, I will be an old man and any catastrophe that is likely to hit will probably have hit long before then, but then at least I'm trying.

[KarenRei]

I don't want to sound like a survivalist ... but we DO have a nice house in Montana too, if anyone needs a place to hunker down.;)

Hmm... it doesn't look anything like this, does it? ;)

http://www.familycourtchronicles.com/philosophy/nature/kaczynski_cabin.jpg

[Danny]

Nice! I'd hate to grow my own food there though.

It looks like the argument about a refridgerator creating negative entropy until you look at the bigger picture.

[Aptera#1434]

Some people have the shortest attention spans.

When gas continues to go up, they'll wring their hands over why they JUST bought another SUV.

Sad.

Exactly why I bought the Honda Insight in 2001.

SUV: 100,000 mi @ 15mpg=approx. 6,666 gallons @ $2.50 gal= $16,665 in fuel costs alone.

Insight: 100,000 mi @ 60mpg=approx. 1,666 gallons @ $2.50 gal= $4,165 in fuel costs.

Over the lifespan of the Insight, the savings in fuel costs alone pay for the vehicle. (currently, my Insight has 263,000 miles on it-runs like a champ)

Fambro told me that the 2e will cost approox. .09 cents a mile to operate, verses .48 cents a mile and up for a typical ice vehicle.

[hill]

Hmm... it doesn't look anything like this, does it? ;)

http://www.familycourtchronicles.com/philosophy/nature/kaczynski_cabin.jpg

Not quite that modest :D
Here's before remodel (1895 Queen Ann)

http://usera.ImageCave.com/w4abj/Montana/3446thaveEast1898-copy.jpg

And here's the 3rd remodel, (2007 Colonial Revival-ish)

http://usera.ImageCave.com/w4abj/Montana/IMG_0471copy.jpg

Needless to say, the original owner's transportation had a smaller carbon footprint than the aptera.

As for folks not being prepared for $4 gas, or otherwise not being prepared, here's my all time favorite "unprepared" pic . . . from the Katrina days. I called it, "the white trash preparredness / survival kit".

http://usera.ImageCave.com/w4abj/WhiteTrashSurvivalKit.jpg

[KarenRei]

Fambro told me that the 2e will cost approox. .09 cents a mile to operate, verses .48 cents a mile and up for a typical ice vehicle.

When? And did he mention that was on CA power rates? Also, I think your decimal place is off for both.

CA averages nearly $0.15/kWh ($0.00015/Wh). $0.009 (0.9 cents per mile) would mean only 60Wh/mi wall to wheel ($0.009 buys you 60 watt hours at that rate). Sounds too extreme for even the 2e. At US average rates, that'd be more like 90Wh/mi. I'd still be very impressed if the 2e could manage that.

[Aptera#1434]

When? And did he mention those were on CA power rates?

Karen,

I saw Fambro at the Stanford Shopping Center/Palo Alto showing. I would assume the rates are for California Energy.

[KarenRei]

Karen,

I saw Fambro at the Stanford Shopping Center/Palo Alto showing. I would assume the rates are for California Energy.

Do you remember what date that was (approx)?

[Aptera#1434]

Do you remember what date that was (approx)?

Karen-

The Palo Alto Aptera Showing was on April 22, 2009 from 5-8pm. I was in line to sit in the Aptera, talking to Steve Fambro at about 6-6:30p.m.

[OC-LA driver]

There's a special rate available from SCE for electric vehicle charging at $0.09 / kWh if you install a separate meter. I posted it on a thread here somewhere

[KarenRei]

There's a special rate available from SCE for electric vehicle charging at $0.09 / kWh if you install a separate meter. I posted it on a thread here somewhere

Which would mean 100Wh/mi wall to wheels.

That's possible, but still darned impressive. At 100% DoD on a 23kWh pack (not that you'd want to do that, or that the pack will necessarily be that big), with 93Wh/mi pack-to-wheels (wall to wheels * 93% charging efficiency -- about as optimistic as you could get for charger * pack), that'd be 247 miles -- more than the *EPA* range of a Tesla Roadster. Yow. And you could charge it to full in 12 1/2 hours on a normal garage out (120V/20A, assumed at 117V/17A).

[speculawyer]

There's a special rate available from SCE for electric vehicle charging at $0.09 / kWh if you install a separate meter. I posted it on a thread here somewhere
With PG&E, you can get Time-of-Use metering if you've got one of the new SmartMeters. With that, you can get energy at an overnight rate of 0.09/KWH . . . but the day rates are bumped up a little.

Rate info is here:
http://www.pge.com/tariffs/electric.shtml

[jstdadd]

I think the most interesting thing likely to occur in California in the next 10 years will be Vehicle-To-Grid (V2G). It will give whole new meaning to the cost of operating a BEV.

I think it likely that within 5 years SDG&E will be subsidizing the cost to run my Aptera 2e by paying me for the battery capacity between 5:00 and 10:00 PM during the summer. It could likely mean that SDG&E pays the entire recharging bill during the summer months. I will have about a 60 mile daily commute, leaving maybe 50% of battery capacity in the Aptera when I arrive home from work between 5:00 and 5:30 PM. I can let them use half of that remaining capacity 5 days a week, and likely more on weekends.

It will be interesting to see how the economics work out - SDG&E is putting together V2G planning right now. I would like to be an early implementer.

[evmavin]

When? And did he mention that was on CA power rates? Also, I think your decimal place is off for both.

CA averages nearly $0.15/kWh ($0.00015/Wh). $0.009 (0.9 cents per mile) would mean only 60Wh/mi wall to wheel ($0.009 buys you 60 watt hours at that rate). Sounds too extreme for even the 2e. At US average rates, that'd be more like 90Wh/mi. I'd still be very impressed if the 2e could manage that.


That may be the average but many people I know pay over $.32 KWh and it's not to tough to do that with utilities like PGE. I was at that rate with very small footage, now that I have solar I have no electric bill. It's very easy to get above baseline and once you are EV charging is much more costly.

[NmGfan]

Here in Santa Clara, CA our muni electric utility (Silicon Valley Power) rates are $0.076/kWh for baseline usage and $0.084/kWh over baseline. The electric part of my utility bill rarely if ever exceeds $40.00/month and that includes running A/C on hot days (1400sqft house) along with recharging the EV every night.

:character0011:

[KarenRei]

I love municipal utilities; too bad our city voted down the chance to get one. I'm the Iowa Coordinator of the Renew America Roadtrip (a cross-country Tesla Roadster trip), and the Iowa Association of Municipal Utilities has gone out of their way to accommodate us. We've had so many offers for charging and even lodging from their member utilities that we've been having to turn down a lot of them.

[Ardie3301]

I wonder how Vehicle-to-Grid will pan out once I start using the Aptera's battery to soak up cheap $0.09/kWh electricity, and feed it back to my own little grid when the electricity rates are .41/kWh.

For those not acquainted with some of the California electricity rates, I have a 2008 Bay Area PG&E bill that lists 5 different pay tiers:

Baseline (205.8 KWh): $0.11550
101-130% of baseline: $ 0.13131
131-200% of baseline: $ 0.24725
201-300% of baseline: $ 0.35443
301 & up of baseline: $ 0.41059

The baseline of 205 KWh is only about 6.8 KWh per day.
I think my house eats that just to keep all the refrigerators, clocks, sprinkler timers, the night lights and fish aquarium going.
Turn on the TV or a hair dryer, then I'm over the baseline in an instant.

Soooo,
If/when I get a rechargeable ca.., er, vehicle, I'll obviously be well into the $0.41059 rate for about 8 KWh (or about $3.25) each commuting day.

I'm gonna have to look into solar panels, or a second utility meter at a minimum.

-- Ardie

PG&E stock is $38.10 a share. Hmmm ...

[hill]

With PG&E, you can get Time-of-Use metering if you've got one of the new SmartMeters. With that, you can get energy at an overnight rate of 0.09/KWH . . . but the day rates are bumped up a little.

Rate info is here:
http://www.pge.com/tariffs/electric.shtml

The higher day rates are a double edged sword for SCE. For those of us with PV panels, that means we get more bang for the buck. SCE has to give a bigger credit for surplus pumped back onto the grid during the day. That means the PV system can be sized down (saving the PV system purchaser on the initial installation cost), if you use your juice wisely.

.

[KarenRei]

For those not acquainted with some of the California electricity rates, I have a 2008 Bay Area PG&E bill that lists 5 different pay tiers:

Baseline (205.8 KWh): $0.11550
101-130% of baseline: $ 0.13131
131-200% of baseline: $ 0.24725
201-300% of baseline: $ 0.35443
301 & up of baseline: $ 0.41059

Yow! Ouch! No wonder solar panels are so affordable in parts of CA! How can someone decide to charge rates like that without sitting in an oversized black swivel chair at the end of a long, dimly lit board room with their top lieutenants, gently stroking a white cat and restraining a guttural cackle while they do so?

[speculawyer]

I think it likely that within 5 years SDG&E will be subsidizing the cost to run my Aptera 2e by paying me for the battery capacity between 5:00 and 10:00 PM during the summer. It could likely mean that SDG&E pays the entire recharging bill during the summer months.
That can be a great sales pitch for EVs eventually "Not only do I not pay for gas, the electric company pays for my electricity!"

Of course, it is a going to be many years down the road before any such system will be available.