Aptera is moving along

[Apt3448]

There hasn't been much official news lately, but things seem to be moving along. I noticed some new job openings at Aptera. No idea how long they have been up. Thought you might be interested in these (see aptera.com for details):
- Aptera is looking for a director of procurement and supply chain, implying they are gearing up for production, which is good to hear.
- Also interesting is the opening for Director of Services as it gives some hints about the current thinking. Quote from the activities:

<· Develop retail strategy for a California roll-out of initial Aptera production to include Aptera owned and operated retail stores and possibly related kiosks in identified California markets to include: retail store sales training, retail sales literature, retail sales selling process, retail internet based ordering tools, and anything else retail sales related, etc.
· Develop a California based roll-out of an Aptera service plan including all 3 levels of service protocols from light vehicle maintenance, moderate service and heavy repair, especially as it relates to crashed vehicle body panel replacement. Each level will require a unique set of processes and protocols to repair the Aptera and should be in place to service the first units being sold in California.
· Develop protocols for service parts and aftermarket parts processes including high level analysis of spoke and wheel logistics for parts inventory, time to ship, time to repair and general warranty claims protocols must also be established.
· Develop and early version of a service manual detailing all plans for service of an Aptera from a technical “remove and replace” mentality. Position leadership will be required to organize and lead in the development of a logical service manual based on a solid understanding of competitive practices and innovative new thought.>

[JimmyDreams]

Yeah, that sounds like a company that will produce vaporware.

NOT!

Looking forward to seeing the production-level prototype!!

:)

[Aptera#1434]

Nice catch! I'm encouraged :-)

[JoeLansing]

- Aptera is looking for a director of procurement and supply chain
They have none 5 months from roll-out date?

Develop retail strategy for a California roll-out of initial Aptera production to include Aptera owned and operated retail stores
They have no retail strategy yet?

Develop a California based roll-out of an Aptera service plan
They have no ideas for a service plan, or how to deliver parts this late in the game? Then again, how can they when they keep changing parts.

I'm not sure I'd call it moving along. Running in place might even be a little bit optimistic. I'm waiting for the announcement "Type 2F will be delivered in late 2010"

[wolfdoggy]

- Aptera is looking for a director of procurement and supply chain
They have none 5 months from roll-out date?

Develop retail strategy for a California roll-out of initial Aptera production to include Aptera owned and operated retail stores
They have no retail strategy yet?

Develop a California based roll-out of an Aptera service plan
They have no ideas for a service plan, or how to deliver parts this late in the game? Then again, how can they when they keep changing parts.

I'm not sure I'd call it moving along. Running in place might even be a little bit optimistic. I'm waiting for the announcement "Type 2F will be delivered in late 2010"

Of course Aptera has ideas on how they are going to perform those functions and those plans are probably 80%-90% together. They just have been smart by not becoming top heavy to early on. And remember, the initial production will be limited so any issues with production and service can be worked out before full production.

In my oppinion, Aptera has done a great job of not wasting there money.

[magnru]

Finally some more encouraging news. I believe the 2e will become a reality if not this year than early next. I had some doubts before google threw in their support. I hope that the 2h will not be far behind. The way I look at it these Aptera Vehicles are the new Model-T's and I expect them to be very valuable 30 years down the road!

[RainCaster]

This is a set of hires needed 15-20 months before volume production begins. I hope they have been posted for a while, or else they may reflect turn-over.

[rayfellow]

Aptera.com says 100,000 vehicles in 5 years. So... if they start with say 4,000 in 2010 - then say 6,000 in year 2 - then 11,000 in year 3 on... That's 30 vehicles a day (10 per 8 hour shift or 1.25 vehicles per hour). How much production infrastructure (read capital) would be necessary to produce at this level? This raises questions regarding the time needed to fabricate the body, door, seats, and trim pieces - and to machine the suspension and other metal parts. Oh yes.. subcontracting for motors, controllers and batteries (or build your own?).

I would love to look over the shoulder of the team that's turning these production requirements into capital costs, labor requirements and coordination of materials. Also - at that production level, can they offer a vehicle in the mid $20,000? It's interesting looking at the Forum discussion regarding price sensitivity. My impression is $2 or $3K difference in price would make an enormous change in demand... Imagine an Aptera for $19,900? Wow! Aptera, prepare to triple your production!

I personally have never met any of the Aptera team, but, for some reason, believe they have the brain power, capacity to listen, and the ability to work as a team, to insure the trust of investors. It is the right product at the - almost - right time... ie. Gas prices will go up in the next 2 to 4 years - with the economic recovery. My guess - $4 to $6 gallon.

[jstdadd]

They've said that they can put 10,000 units a year out, or 1000 per month, max, in the Vista and Carlsbad, CA facilities. And that they'd like to open another factory somewhere in the center of the US.

[KarenRei]

They changed that to 20k/year a while back. Who knows what's realistic.

[Apt3448]

FWIW, the job listings that started this thread are no longer mentioned on the Aptera website.

[rayfellow]

Has Aptera ever said how they will distribute the new vehicles? Is it factory direct? And then the same question regarding warranty work? Will it be independent shops with an Aptera contract? I hope the answer is yes to both. Factory direct would suggest better control of the sale price and driver training. Independent shops for warranty work- could keep the after market costs down. This is not trade secret information. It could actually inspire more pre sales pledges of $500. That, in turn, might make their quest for start up cash easier.

I am especially intrigued by the production numbers. For example what's the per vehicle cost @ 10,000 units per year vs. 20,000. Like... how many units per year would get the basic Aptera down to $19,900?

[randyd]

Has Aptera ever said how they will distribute the new vehicles? Is it factory direct? And then the same question regarding warranty work? Will it be independent shops with an Aptera contract? I hope the answer is yes to both.

As I recall, the plan a long time ago was to establish dealerships in each metro area where sales will occur. San Diego first, L.A. second, San Francisco third. A quick search failed to find the threads on that topic.

Since that rumor was passed around, the GM and Chrysler dealership network collapsed, leaving lots of locations and people available for a new opportunity. Maybe that will work in Aptera's favor...

[JimmyDreams]

I believe the original idea was a roll-out based on location (San Diego first, Orange County, second, etc.)

The current plan in a roll-out based on reservation number in order, regardless of location. This seems MUCH more difficult, but maybe that's just me. Perhaps if you live in Sacramento, you'll have to sign something that says "I know that the only service center in in Carlsbad" or something similar.

(shrug)

[thudmeister]

Hydrogen Car, hehe, not very bright are we?

KABOOM
:tongue0015:

People do not properly maintain a gasoline vehicle and you want them to drive a hydrogen bomb down the road?

[MoW]

Is there a comparison table of Aptera vs. Tesla S anywhere on the net?
Thanks.

[KarenRei]

No table, but I could do a breakdown for you. Let me know if you need anything not listed here.

Price (w/o options):
* Aptera 2e: ~$30k **
* Tesla Model S: $57k

Federal tax credit:
* Aptera 2e: $2.5k
* Tesla Model S: $7.5k

Range:
* Aptera 2e: Pessimistic 100 miles.*** No pack size options.
* Tesla Model S: Optimistic 160 miles (options, likely expensive, exist for larger packs, providing up to 300 miles. Larger packs can be rented temporarily, at an as-of-yet undisclosed price). ***

Acceleration:
* Aptera 2e: 0-60 in ~8 seconds ****
* Tesla Model S: 0-60 in 5.5 seconds

Seating:
* Aptera 2e: 2, possibly 2+1
* Telsa Model S: 5+2

Cargo area:
* Aptera 2e: "Lots" (24-~40 cubic feet) *****
* Tesla Model S: Unknown; looks normal to small

Cell type:
* Aptera 2e: Lithium iron phosphate
* Tesla Model S: Cobalt/graphite 18650s (laptop cells)

100-mile charge time on 120V (normal wall socket):
* Aptera 2e: 8-10 hours (official)
* Tesla Model S: Unknown, but est. 18.5 hours ******

100-mile charge time on 240V/30A (dryer socket):
* Aptera 2e: 2-3 hours (official, although possibly outdated info. Requires optional charger)
* Tesla Model S: Unknown, but est. ~5 hours *******

Minimum charge time:
* Aptera 2e: Unknown. Aptera has not disclosed many details about the "higher power" charging option yet.
* Tesla Model S: 45 minutes to 80% capacity on a custom 480V charger (not household)

Body:
* Aptera 2e: "Honeycomb" foam-core fiberglass monocoque with steel and/or carbon fiber reinforcements in key areas (such as the doors). Aptera challenges users to win $100 if they can damage a bare shell with a sledgehammer.
* Tesla Model S: Aluminum frame and body panels (carbon fiber is available as an option).

Safety:
* Aptera 2e: Not required by law to pass FMVSS safety standards. Doing crash and crush testing voluntarily. Developed using the same FEM software BMW uses. Door crush strength reportedly about 2x the FMVSS standards, and roof crush about 4.5x. Designed to ride up and over the bumper an accident.
* Tesla Model S: Required by law to pass all FMVSS standards.

Handling:
* Aptera 2e: Cornering radius of a Porsche Boxter. Braking distance of a Mustang GT
* Tesla Model S: Unknown, but expected to be excellent, given Tesla's track record and the target market of the vehicle.

Release date:
* Aptera 2e: Q4 2009
* Tesla Model S: Q3 2011

Footnotes:

** Aptera has stated that the 2-series will range in price from "$25 to $40k depending on powertrain and options" (some earlier reports had the high end up into the "mid $40s", but they haven't used that phrase recently). The three powertrains are the 2g (gasoline), the 2e (electric), and the 2h (plug-in hybrid). Based on the company's statements, they appear to be in that pricing order. Consequently, about 30k, perhaps a little more, seems as good a guess as any for the before-options price of a 2e.

*** Aptera's range estimate appears to be pessimistic (a feeling validated by Jay Leno during his test drive). The vehicle has a battery pack nearly as large as the Nissan Leaf or Th!nk City (both supposed 100-mile range vehicles), yet is a small fraction the weight and aerodynamic drag. Tesla, on the other hand, has a history of overly optimistic assessments of range, so it seems likely to expect that from the Model S as well.

**** The official statement for the 2e's 0-60 acceleration is "under 10 seconds". The prototype shown at TED, according to Marques, clocked in at just under 8 seconds. The feel of driving or riding in the various prototypes shown so far appears to match a figure in that range.

*****: Aptera's statements on this have been confusing. A very early report pegged the cargo space at 16 cubic feet -- about average or even slightly more than average. A recent update from Aptera stated that they added 24 "more" cubic feet of cargo space. This would put the cargo area at around a massive 40 cubic feet. It seems doubtful that this is the case. A reasonable estimate seems to be somewhere between 24 and 40 cubic feet.

****** Assuming about 280Wh/mi wall to wheels for a vehicle like that (cobalt cells = more charging cooling so lower charge efficiency), 13A, 117V actual, and no charge balancing needed, this yields about 18.5 hours

******* Assuming about 280Wh/mi wall to wheels for a vehicle like that (cobalt cells = more charging cooling so lower charge efficiency), 27A, 234V actual, plus a little charge balancing needed, this yields about ~5 hours.

[MoW]

KarenRei, thanks for the comprehensive information. I appreciate it.

[Danny]

Federal tax credit:
* Aptera 2e: $2.5k
* Tesla Model S: $7.5k



I didn't think Aptera would be eligible for any federal tax credit because of its three-wheel status. Is this currently fact or simply assumed?

[KarenRei]

Fact. There's a completely separate $2.5k electric motorcycle and NEV tax credit.

[Danny]

I like it.

Of course, that IS just a TAX credit, which means we will see something less than that as real dollars, and we won't see it until we make out our income taxes sometime way in the future when we won't get the direct reinforcement for making a good choice. Still, it is something.

[KarenRei]

I like it.

Of course, that IS just a TAX credit, which means we will see something less than that as real dollars

Both are credits, not deductions. You get the full amount (unless you pay less than that in taxes).

[Danny]

I think I like that better.

[Stroke]

If when they start production they cannot sell the (e) Aptera for less than any other Electric on the market OR cannot produce a car with 100 mile range or better, the car will not sell, no matter how unique! The competition between 2010 and 2020 will be fierce! Whoever has the best and the cheapest will win. I personally root for Aptera..........but will buy the best and the cheapest.

[earther]

If when they start production they cannot sell the (e) Aptera for less than any other Electric on the market OR cannot produce a car with 100 mile range or better, the car will not sell, no matter how unique! The competition between 2010 and 2020 will be fierce! Whoever has the best and the cheapest will win. I personally root for Aptera..........but will buy the best and the cheapest.

Speaking for myself, price and range are factors, but they are definitely not overriding factors. Aptera doesn't need to be the least expensive among its EV competitors, provided it's below $X (where X increases steadily as time passes; I can save up more money and increase my credit rating to enable larger loans with better financing. presently, X is probably around 25k). Furthermore, Aptera's range is also not a significant factor for me, as I could probably get by with well under half it's current capacity. The #1 issue for me is trying to get one in my driveway before my job change in Sept 2010 (and unfortunately, that's seemingly increasingly unlikely since my reservation number is in the high triple digits and production is yet to start).

-Steve

[rayfellow]

Seems to me it's fair to compare the Aptera with its competition or EV's with 2 seats:
Aptera: Price $25/$30K. Energy use 14 kWh per 100 miles. Average length, wider than others, lowest drag and weight. - Range 100 miles per charge

MiniE: Price $?? with batteries, or lease batteries. It's hard to figure at this point, but appears to be a bit more than the Aptera. Energy use: 25 kWh per 100 miles. Short length, and not wide. ho hum drag and weight - Range 60 or 70 miles per charge

Smart for 2 EV: similar to the MiniE but even shorter.

Tesla: Mega bucks. It's a two seater but it really caters to a different audience.

All the others are 4 and 5 seater cars and use 2 to 3 times Aptera's energy.

Aptera is price competitive with its competition. The cost of producing an Aptera should be less than the heavier, less aerodynamic competition. The Aptera is twice as efficient as its competition, it will always need less battery storage, along with a lighter motor and controller. It will also always charge faster than the others.

Aptera's main disadvantage is it's wide, and longer than the competition - thus not so good for street city parking.

[jhm614]

Aptera's main disadvantage is it's wide, and longer than the competition - thus not so good for street city parking.

Two more disadvantages: 1) Aptera is a startup -- this will turn some buyers off, when considering warranty, service, company stability, etc.
2) Aptera's unique styling -- I like it but it's not for everybody. I'm getting a 50/50 reaction when I show people the Aptera website. Half the people completely get it, the other half thinks it looks like a toy or kit car.

[byplug]

...wrote email to emily (marketing) at Aptera in Vista w/cc to Paul W, Steve F, and Kathy M. ... ..posted Aptera 2e questions that I think reservation holders should ask ...posted on my freeway speed electric car news web...

..... check "Remember when section: August 26, 2009" near page top.... byplug is a daily news web for electric cars with news, opinions, comments, ..... love Aptera 2e but, .....hey Aptera.....what up?