Nissan Leaf Resale

[evmavin]

Anyone want to speculate on the resale of the Leaf after 1-2 years? Let's assume prices before tax but after a $7500 rebate so assuming the cars costs $26K. Would the car be worth that in a year or far less as a result of new products? Even with the rebate still in place would it hold value as being lower priced to someone who is not able to get the tax credit? Very difficult to speculate. I think the lease is good but I would not want to be locked into a car like that for three years.

As a side note, the Nissan pre-reservation announcement states that the dealer price may vary. Here is a great opportunity for dealers to scum up the launch of EVs by adding bogus charges. Like buying a PT cruiser at $5K over MSRP, what a joke that was, MINI dealers tried that as well. I really hope pre-orders are not handled this way.

[SlowSRT4]

There's nothing wrong with a dealer bumping up their prices, that is simply supply and demand at work. If demand exceeds supply, prices will increase.

[futura]

I speculate that if gas prices stay below $4, a 2-yr old Leaf will still sell above $20k in urban markets. I think Nissan is kinda saying the same thing with their excellent lease pricing. I've been mulling the lease vs buy option on this and I'm pretty convinced it's gonna be "Buy".
This requires Nissan produce a good quality vehicle and avoid any serious V1.0 issues.
With gas much above $4, the Leaf will hold it's value even better. I doubt even new models from other manufacturers are going to beat the entry level price so Nissan has a pretty strong position as long as they can produce enough of them. Again, if the price of gas increases much by 2013, Nissan won't be able to build enough and the price of new and used EVs like the leaf will all rise; Re: 6 yr old Rav4 EVs for $50k! (BTW, Rav4EV owners; time to sell).
I think just enough mainstream EVs will be produced through 2014 to satisfy the folks, like those here, who fit the early adopter profile and aren't choosing between the Leaf and something like a Honda Fit. After 2014 it'll be the "Wild West" for EVs… at least that is my hope.

Question for you evmavin: Valuing a used EV seems kinda tricky. The odometer doesn't mean as much since the drive-train wears so little. I'd want to know something about the pack charge-discharge profile on a 2 yr old used Leaf. Is that info readily available? Anything else you would investigate before making an offer on my 2 yr old Leaf?

[Spies]

I for one refuse to pay one cent over sticker for a car. My last two car purchases were at sticker however and both were Toyota Prius. The first was purchased right after Honda took away my beloved EV Plus and the second I bought to replace the first when I realized I could still sell the first Prius for what I payed for it after over two years and almost 30K miles.

I will not know if the lease makes sense to me until Nissan releases the buy out cost and mile charges. According to the latest email from Nissan we may not have that information until the start of sales in December 2010.

I certainly hope Nissan has the sense to keep their dealers on a short leash when it comes to the LEAF and pricing. If they don't they will lose my business.

[aptera1213]

Lease for me.

I don't worry about the mileage (I will put less than 6k a year on mine...and that is only if the wife drives it a lot...by myself I will go maybe 3k).

I don't worry about the buy out cost because I will be trading it back in so I can buy a 500ev in 3 years.

It's not a PP6...but it will do till the 500ev hits the streets :)

Gavin

[evmavin]

There's nothing wrong with a dealer bumping up their prices, that is simply supply and demand at work. If demand exceeds supply, prices will increase.


Pre-oreder is not the same as walking to a dealer floor where six people want the same inventory car. When you "order" a car to be delivered it should be the MSRP plus destination and taxes. If there is supply and demand it should be agreed at the confirmation of the order not after waiting to pic it up and finding a surprise waiting. When was the last time you ordered online and found the price went up after shipment?

[evmavin]

I for one refuse to pay one cent over sticker for a car. My last two car purchases were at sticker however and both were Toyota Prius. The first was purchased right after Honda took away my beloved EV Plus and the second I bought to replace the first when I realized I could still sell the first Prius for what I payed for it after over two years and almost 30K miles.

I will not know if the lease makes sense to me until Nissan releases the buy out cost and mile charges. According to the latest email from Nissan we may not have that information until the start of sales in December 2010.

I certainly hope Nissan has the sense to keep their dealers on a short leash when it comes to the LEAF and pricing. If they don't they will lose my business.

+1 and the dealership as well. Car dealers are a very low in the food chain, very low.

[evmavin]

Any comments on "resale value"?

[futura]

Any comments on "resale value"?Yup... 5 posts back.

[Dolphyn]

I think it really depends on what happens to electric car manufacturing, in general, going forward. In my opinion:

If somebody "kills the electric car" again and EV's are not generally available, the resale value will be significantly more than you paid for it. (I think this is unlikely.)

If battery prices decrease rapidly, the resale value could be significantly less than you paid for it, because people will be able to buy a brand new and better electric car for less. (I think this is likely.)

If anyone actually manages to mass-produce a product that lives up to the EEStor hype, the Leaf's batteries won't be worth much at all.

[aptera1213]

With the US military talking about peak oil in 2015, nobody is killing the electric car this time...

Gavin

[evmavin]

I speculate that if gas prices stay below $4, a 2-yr old Leaf will still sell above $20k in urban markets. I think Nissan is kinda saying the same thing with their excellent lease pricing. I've been mulling the lease vs buy option on this and I'm pretty convinced it's gonna be "Buy".
This requires Nissan produce a good quality vehicle and avoid any serious V1.0 issues.
With gas much above $4, the Leaf will hold it's value even better. I doubt even new models from other manufacturers are going to beat the entry level price so Nissan has a pretty strong position as long as they can produce enough of them. Again, if the price of gas increases much by 2013, Nissan won't be able to build enough and the price of new and used EVs like the leaf will all rise; Re: 6 yr old Rav4 EVs for $50k! (BTW, Rav4EV owners; time to sell).
I think just enough mainstream EVs will be produced through 2014 to satisfy the folks, like those here, who fit the early adopter profile and aren't choosing between the Leaf and something like a Honda Fit. After 2014 it'll be the "Wild West" for EVs… at least that is my hope.

Question for you evmavin: Valuing a used EV seems kinda tricky. The odometer doesn't mean as much since the drive-train wears so little. I'd want to know something about the pack charge-discharge profile on a 2 yr old used Leaf. Is that info readily available? Anything else you would investigate before making an offer on my 2 yr old Leaf?


All that data should be attainable but I won't be buying any used EVs:)

[eestorfan]

I think it really depends on what happens to electric car manufacturing, in general, going forward. In my opinion:

If somebody "kills the electric car" again and EV's are not generally available, the resale value will be significantly more than you paid for it. (I think this is unlikely.)

If battery prices decrease rapidly, the resale value could be significantly less than you paid for it, because people will be able to buy a brand new and better electric car for less. (I think this is likely.)

If anyone actually manages to mass-produce a product that lives up to the EEStor hype, the Leaf's batteries won't be worth much at all.

I'm with you Dolphyn on this one. That's why I've pretty much decided to lease instead of buy. :)

[LTLFTcomposite]

Pre-oreder is not the same as walking to a dealer floor where six people want the same inventory car. When you "order" a car to be delivered it should be the MSRP plus destination and taxes. If there is supply and demand it should be agreed at the confirmation of the order not after waiting to pic it up and finding a surprise waiting. When was the last time you ordered online and found the price went up after shipment?

Nissan changed the wording on how they are presenting the pricing leading me to think dealers will try to extract additional profit from these deals. Remains to be seen what they try to pull there; if demand is through the roof they will smell blood. You can expect to see every Leaf processed by a dealer receive the $995 fabric protection, $595 paint sealant, and be subject to an even higher than usual dealer service fee to account for all the additional costs they incur selling someone an EV. I just hope they don't try to undercoat it.

[evmavin]

Nissan changed the wording on how they are presenting the pricing leading me to think dealers will try to extract additional profit from these deals. Remains to be seen what they try to pull there; if demand is through the roof they will smell blood. You can expect to see every Leaf processed by a dealer receive the $995 fabric protection, $595 paint sealant, and be subject to an even higher than usual dealer service fee to account for all the additional costs they incur selling someone an EV. I just hope they don't try to undercoat it.


I agree with this but anytime a car is pre-ordered in a specific way it is delivered as such and not a dealer inventory car. If you go to a lot to buy a inventory car it may have many things added as you mention and it is sold as equipped from "stock". If you order a car form a dealer you negotiate a price and it is delivered "as ordered". Orders will be firmed up online it appears so that seems like an exact specification. When the MINI was released some dealers stock piled many and added all sorts of options, if you went to the dealer to buy one it was MSRP plus the added options or you could order one and wait six-eight months and pay MSRP. Perhaps dealers will charge "fees" but if the car is ordered to a spec it should be delivered as such. I have never bought a Nissan so I'm not sure how those dealers in my area area. Some dealers are good about this and some are complete opportunistic scum.

[LTLFTcomposite]

I agree with this but anytime a car is pre-ordered in a specific way it is delivered as such and not a dealer inventory car. If you go to a lot to buy a inventory car it may have many things added as you mention and it is sold as equipped from "stock". If you order a car form a dealer you negotiate a price and it is delivered "as ordered". Orders will be firmed up online it appears so that seems like an exact specification. When the MINI was released some dealers stock piled many and added all sorts of options, if you went to the dealer to buy one it was MSRP plus the added options or you could order one and wait six-eight months and pay MSRP. Perhaps dealers will charge "fees" but if the car is ordered to a spec it should be delivered as such. I have never bought a Nissan so I'm not sure how those dealers in my area area. Some dealers are good about this and some are complete opportunistic scum.

I'm going to put down my $99 regardless on Tuesday on the assumption that all the details will be disclosed before I am asked to make any firm commitment or place a larger, binding deposit. If there's anything about the car, warranty, lease terms, or dealer business practices I'm not comfortable with I'll just ask for my $99 back, and at today's interest rates probably only be out about a buck. A small price to pay for registering my vote in the marketplace that I'd like to buy a car that runs on something other than oil.