If Aptera didn't look dead before...

[10.5]

...it sure does now.

What do you think? Is Aptera & the 2e finally dead in the water?

[base428]

I still have a reservation in place. I sent Aptera an email last week asking for a current status report on the car. Crickets.......

They can't even respond to reservation holders?

[wcabdefense]

You would think that they would offer the 200-300 remaining 2e reservations a test-drive after they return to So Cal. After 3 years, I think we at least deserve to drive the car even if we won't own it soon/ever.:sign0029:

[palmer_md]

I think I'll get my 2e after a few months of delay nonsense..........2..........33.33%

I guess there are still a few optimists out there. 33% of the respondents think the car is coming within months.

[Stunt Driver]

I think Aptera car will hit roads, but not necessarily by Aptera company. Also I think it will be niche targeted, at around $50k price, so ~100u per year make positive ROI. In this case - I pass.....

[Rembrant]

They are dead in the water but that isn't the same as dead. Like I have said befor it all depends on whether they gey the DOE loan or not.

[ecdriver]

I hope they succeed. I really like the car and the fact they updated it to make it less of a nitch type car. But your right; the Aptera people are lousy at staying in touch with the public.

[PatQ562]

Aptera acts as if they are annoyed by the existence of early reservation holders and just hopes we will go away. In truth it's a much different company now, but I refuse to give them the satisfaction.

Pat Q

[jhm614]

We should add a poll option -- "I was never able to order an Aptera because I don't live in California"

[Stroke]

From all indications I would expect Aptera to treat it's reservation holders in the future, exactly the same as they have treated us in the past!!!:ashamed0002:

[Stunt Driver]

22 voters - that is the answer.

[NeilBlanchard]

I agree.

As a resident of another state, I think my chances of ever buying an Aptera are about 100X lower than those in California. But if they never produce any, then we are all denied.

[Grendal]

22 voters - that is the answer.

Sadly true. A great idea that's lost all its initial excitement. The BOD really dropped the ball on a potentially huge game changer and money maker by favoring a couple of idiots over a couple of visionaries.

Aptera had the potential to bring efficiency and aerodynamics into the general public's consciousness. I doubt that is going to happen again anytime soon. I like the VLC but I don't think it will be anything more than a niche vehicle. The Aptera has a "coolness factor" that the VLC just doesn't have. And the VLC is also too late to the game too.

Very sad.

[BryanSR]

I voted.... :animal0029:

[eventhusiast]

Well...i looked at the registered concept ev/hybrid vehicle list at the upcoming LA Auto Show...no Aptera. Even the wheego is listed. The list is on EVWORLD if you care to look.

Time clock is ticking bigtime for Aptera....hate to say it but it really does not look good.

[Stunt Driver]

i have finally registered on Leaf forum. kinda because of starting to loose hope.
At the end, Leaf is not too way off priced comparing to similar sized car. And if hybrid is taken into consideration, like Prius - then nearly same money.
Last nail will be when DOE declines loan.

[rayfellow]

As a student of EV's and all the components (batteries, BMS, motors) drag, weight, and economies of size and scale, I am worried I'm loosing one of the most comprehensive sources of EV information.

I have learned soooo much in this forum. Obviously this is the future of personal transportation - with questions and observations of... everything.

Where's a curious fellow to go who wants to over hear, get the latest - which vehicles are doing what, getting funding, corporate interest.

For example Pat, Neil, Karen and so many others are so good at taking the time to explain what's up. Are there other forums that do what the poor old dying Aptera Forum has been doing?

[evmavin]

As a student of EV's and all the components (batteries, BMS, motors) drag, weight, and economies of size and scale, I am worried I'm loosing one of the most comprehensive sources of EV information.

I have learned soooo much in this forum. Obviously this is the future of personal transportation - with questions and observations of... everything.

Where's a curious fellow to go who wants to over hear, get the latest - which vehicles are doing what, getting funding, corporate interest.

For example Pat, Neil, Karen and so many others are so good at taking the time to explain what's up. Are there other forums that do what the poor old dying Aptera Forum has been doing?


There was far more expertise and experience on the EVDL discussion list then this forum by far. It's intensive but people that really know EVs.

[NeilBlanchard]

Here's a few that I frequent:

http://www.plugincars.com/
http://ecomodder.com/
http://www.greencarreports.com/
http://www.allcarselectric.com/
http://www.greencarcongress.com/

[rayfellow]

There was far more expertise and experience on the EVDL discussion list then this forum by far. It's intensive but people that really know EVs.

Thanks fellows (Neil too)... Just what I needed!

[chijayhawker]

As a student of EV's and all the components (batteries, BMS, motors) drag, weight, and economies of size and scale, I am worried I'm loosing one of the most comprehensive sources of EV information.

I have learned soooo much in this forum. Obviously this is the future of personal transportation - with questions and observations of... everything.

Where's a curious fellow to go who wants to over hear, get the latest - which vehicles are doing what, getting funding, corporate interest.

For example Pat, Neil, Karen and so many others are so good at taking the time to explain what's up. Are there other forums that do what the poor old dying Aptera Forum has been doing?

Ray, I would also suggest you move on over to the MyNissanLeaf forum. A lot of the previous members here have moved over there and you will find the very extensive discussion of all things electric car. Obviously there is a focus on Leaf specific topics and issues, but there is still a vigorous discussion on all things EV. You don't have to be in line for a Leaf to partake in the discussion, but I've gathered a wealth of information from that group like I used to get from this group.

[evmavin]

Ray, I would also suggest you move on over to the MyNissanLeaf forum. A lot of the previous members here have moved over there and you will find the very extensive discussion of all things electric car. Obviously there is a focus on Leaf specific topics and issues, but there is still a vigorous discussion on all things EV. You don't have to be in line for a Leaf to partake in the discussion, but I've gathered a wealth of information from that group like I used to get from this group.


There is plenty of Leaf info there but the Level of EV knowledge is very low and there is quite a bit of inaccurate information passed about. It's more of a consumer buyer site.

[chijayhawker]

There is plenty of Leaf info there but the Level of EV knowledge is very low and there is quite a bit of inaccurate information passed about. It's more of a consumer buyer site.

Well, I'm a newbie to EVs, so the discussions there seem pertinent, and I can't verify the veracity of the discussions. But at least at that site we are getting to be actual "consumers"! :tongue0002:

[evmavin]

Well, I'm a newbie to EVs, so the discussions there seem pertinent, and I can't verify the veracity of the discussions. But at least at that site we are getting to be actual "consumers"! :tongue0002:


MY point is that few few people on that site know much about EVs, that's all. If one wants to really learn about EVs I would suggest elsewhere.

[mweston]

I voted "I think I'll get my 2e after a year or two or three of delays" even though I just canceled, because I think there's a real chance that I could get an Aptera in a few years. But by then the Leaf will be commonplace, at least on the roads of the Bay Area, and one of them will be mine.

[stefan72]

Are there other forums that do what the poor old dying Aptera Forum has been doing?

Green Car Network (http://www.ecocarforum.com)

A forum dedicated to electric cars, and guess what - the APTERA is listed as well - for how long?

[NeilBlanchard]

Thanks for the link Stefan -- I have not seen that forum before.

[Grendal]

And another company from the X-prize gets a large order generating a large influx of cash. And nothing for the Aptera...

http://green.autoblog.com/2010/11/29/icelands-northern-lights-energy-places-order-for-1-000-amp-elec/

PBW really seems to have sunk this boat. What an idiot.

[evmavin]

Most investors look for experienced leaders in companies.

[Jack5297]

If Aptera does not go into production during 2011, they might as well fold up their tent and steal away in the night. I have tested the Leaf and the Volt. The Volt is head and shoulders the front runner. Who amongst the rational beings would plunck down a sum of money in the $30,000 range with a company with a negative balance sheet, no dealer organization and no market presence? Only those who believe in the tooth fairy or that Obama will save our country.

[PatQ562]

Political rants aside (I happen to LOVE the tooth fairy), Aptera's window has already closed. Customers can at least sign up for mainstream alternatives RIGHT NOW. It just gets worse from now on. There could still be a small exploitable "beachhead" for a high-efficiency-breakthrough vehicle, preferably at a low cost, but that does not seem to be Aptera's current direction, and no start-up can make money competing on price.
Oh Well.
Pat Q

[jdbgn]

I have not voted. The choices are not really relative. As for the leaf, 3000 available in the US into next year from a japanese company? I'll keep my reservation. The deposit seems to bother some. Chump change. Get real.
They are talking last quarter 2010 as a start. They said last quarter in 2009 and 2008 if I remember correctly. As I stated as soon as I heard who was being brought on board. They will probably suck as much money out of Aptera and move on.
And no, I don't believe in the tooth fairy.

[bozcorob]

I have asked for confirmation of my reservation at least 5 times with NO response. I have been waiting for 3 years with nothing but newsletters.......

[plainar]

I voted for the "stringing along" option. PBW wants to drag out his paycheck, his beach rental and cable bill reimbursements as long as possible. No joke, this guy makes Aptera pay for his cable bill.

[Grendal]

The BOD don't seem to mind keeping him around to collect a paycheck because they've done nothing to stop it. Same for MM and Laura. And for that matter, what about the 22 others? What are they doing?

[palmer_md]

Some are sitting in chairs while others are pushing. Its all about teamwork.

Seriously though, I expected to have some sort of shakeup in the company after the results of the Xprize was announced.

Perhaps the BOD has not had a meeting since the Xprize results were announced at the end of september. It it is quarterly then they may have a meeting in December. Should be an interesting year for Aptera. Its GO time.

http://www.apteraforum.com/showpost.php?p=55422&postcount=4

[evmavin]

As long as everyone is compensated in some way they will milk it as long as possible. These guys tarnish the EV world, I really wish they would just go away. They remind me of many present day politicians.

[hill]

A death watch is a somber experience. Many have had family members with cancer that lingers & lingers ... sometimes lingering for years prior to the inevitable passing. At first, the cancer victim get LOTS of well wishers stopping by. As the weeks drag on into months ... then years ... fewer & fewer stop by. I suppose that's to be expected as it's horribly hard to watch terrible suffering. Eventually, it's just the spouse, and maybe the kids. That's what I'm reminded of.

[AndyH]

Paging Dr. Kevorkian...

:(

[randyd]

Paging Dr. Kevorkian...

:(

Good one...:thumbsup:

[SEGsby]

Team B killed the Aptera, just like Obama killed Bin Ladin.

Way to go, Paul.

[Jack5297]

With Bin Laden, we had a dead body. With Aptera, it is apparently still breathing. Thus, no corpse, no death. I will admit that it is dying a slow death. In retrospect, three wheels was a mistake. Three wheels was tried decades ago and it was a flop then. Otherwise, Aptera was a grand idea and design (there I go again, speaking in the past tense).

[NeilBlanchard]

Jack,

I don't think that the 3-wheel design had anything to do with the apparent demise of the Aptera.

[Jack5297]

Of course there are other factors - MONEY & MORE MONEY, but the fact remains that no big auto company would dare think of purchasing a company that has a three wheel. It was tried by the Germans, no public acceptance. It is like a recumbent bicycle, may be an idea with some merit, but no public acceptance. Besides, we all know that electric cars are but an interim step for natural gas or possibly hydrogen. Natural gas now powers buses etc. For all I know, only Honda has made a hydrogen car that is on the road, but one cannot be purchased. Battery technology is a hard hurdle, for it takes money, and more money. Would you put your wife and kids on a freeway going 65 mph or higher and in a three wheeler? Not me.

[SEGsby]

You forget how safe the earlier PP4-7's were... From their composite shells to their wide front stance.

I would be more fearful of the FatSO-1...

[evmavin]

Of course there are other factors - MONEY & MORE MONEY, but the fact remains that no big auto company would dare think of purchasing a company that has a three wheel. It was tried by the Germans, no public acceptance. It is like a recumbent bicycle, may be an idea with some merit, but no public acceptance. Besides, we all know that electric cars are but an interim step for natural gas or possibly hydrogen. Natural gas now powers buses etc. For all I know, only Honda has made a hydrogen car that is on the road, but one cannot be purchased. Battery technology is a hard hurdle, for it takes money, and more money. Would you put your wife and kids on a freeway going 65 mph or higher and in a three wheeler? Not me.


You may want to do a bit more research on natural gas and hydrogen in particular, not to mention check out Honda a bit more.

[Tkaypro]

I did ride in Zen on the freeway going 65+ mph. When a three-wheeler is designed correctly, you forget there's only one wheel in the rear.

Aptera Typ-1 never was supposed to be adopted/purchased by any big auto company, nor was it supposed to be mainstream. It WAS all about efficiency.

-Tricia

[danieloneil01]

Jack,

I don't think that the 3-wheel design had anything to do with the apparent demise of the Aptera.


Agree 100%. What killed them was management.

[SEGsby]

Yeaup. Totally agree. But Karen saw it coming... Why didn't the BOD?
*mystified*

Agree 100%. What killed them was management.

[danieloneil01]

The same Karen that thought this company was better than the Big 3 even before making a car? :P

[SEGsby]

If your criteria includes hyper-efficiency and innovative design and use of materials, then sure. Why not?

But Team B abandoned that path, and gave us the FatSO-1. :P

[Grendal]

The same Karen that thought this company was better than the Big 3 even before making a car? :P

Give Karen her due, there was certainly the possibility of revolutionizing the industry given the right set of circumstances. It's still a good looking innovative design. The timing is shot and Aptera will never get back the momentum it had 3 years ago. It is now, at best, a niche vehicle. That's assuming they somehow get money - which ain't gonna happen, or it would've already happened. Aptera, sadly, is a failure.

[NeilBlanchard]

So, where are the 200+ MPGe cars from the Big 3?

[PatQ562]

I think the EV1 pretty much met the 200 MPGe standard, with performance similar to Illuminati, Dolphine, etc. As I've said before, if only GM had lost the big bucks pioneering lithium instead of lead-acid or NiMH, a thread of technology may have continued, but some of the key technology shows up in the Volt, although overburdened with a lot of mass-market barnacles.

I have a problem with the MPGe calculation, as it takes no account of the real-world losses incurred generating electricity. True, one can get electricity from renewable sources, but it's also possible to make methane or bio-diesel from renewable sources. The real question should be total energy used per mile, or perhaps even CO2 generated per mile (if we are mainly concerned with long term climate impact). If we optimistically assume that electricity can be produced and delivered at a net loss of 50% of carbon-based fuels, that cuts the MPGe in half. This means that real-world energy use for the Leaf is more like 50mpg, only slightly better than a Prius (which actually makes sense considering the relative weights and streamlining). The real target ought to substantially higher, as pursued by Edison2 and the original Aptera - yielding nominal MPGe in the 330mpg range (100wh/mi). If in fact, electricity sources become more renewable, then that can be factored in, raising the net MPGe of all electric cars.

What really stops mainstream car companies from making hyper-efficient cars is the fear of lawsuits if they dare to market a "tin can" that doesn't do well in crashes with 6000 lb SUVs. Composite construction, such as Steve has been glowingly recapping, is great, but expensive, and costs don't scale down with volume - it remains a hand-labor process. Given the high costs of composites and batteries, the only remaining defense is to ruthlessly pare non-essentials while producing a basically pleasing car (even Team A was somewhat over-ambitious in adding fringe benefits in my opinion). The other appeal is to make a car with a nearly indefinite service life due to non-rusting construction. This is why I supported shaft-drive to meet the need of long service life.

I have to say that Edison2 makes a good case for cost reduction using minimalistic aluminum construction, but I don't suppose it will have the crush strength of the Aptera body.

As noted before, the real sorrow is that Aptera had their chance to prove their case on the open road, if they could have fielded vehicles several years ago when there were no other EV choices. Even a small fleet in the hands of early adopters would have shown what's possible. Now that "safe choices" are becoming available, I fear that the bold stroke will not be given a chance even if it ever reaches market.

Pat Q

[Grendal]

Composite construction, such as Steve has been glowingly recapping, is great, but expensive, and costs don't scale down with volume - it remains a hand-labor process. Given the high costs of composites and batteries, the only remaining defense is to ruthlessly pare non-essentials while producing a basically pleasing car (even Team A was somewhat over-ambitious in adding fringe benefits in my opinion).
Pat Q

Composite construction can't be done by robots? There are millions of boats out there and they are made primarily from fiberglass. I'm sure it's been gone over at length somewhere else on the forum but why not a robot driven mass production line?

[SEGsby]

Robots aren't Patriotic. ;)

[PatQ562]

Composite construction can't be done by robots?
Maybe it could, but it takes considerable dexterity, judgment, and skill to place good tight layers of laminated cloth especially around curves - and then you've got to place and glue the core material. Chop-glass can be sprayed on but it's heavier and weaker (possibly where FatSO-1 gained weight?). And it STILL takes considerable time for layup and curing. So one would have to invest in massive parallel banks of high tech robots to get any real thru-put. Hopefully some smart cookie will think of a fundamentally better way to form composites - VW (or BMW?) claims to have something in the works -- but this has been the big problem so far.

Boats are fairly expensive for what they are, and don't mind having fairly thick and heavy hulls relative to what we want in a lightweight car. Surfboards are more like it, and they cost many hundreds of dollars for a simple "plank". Meanwhile I bet the raw cost of a stamped steel fender is some few bucks.

Pat Q

[NeilBlanchard]

The problem with adding the generation (and other) losses to electricity -- is that you then also have to add all the embedded energy (losses) for gasoline. They are myriad.

[PatQ562]

The problem with adding the generation (and other) losses to electricity -- is that you then also have to add all the embedded energy (losses) for gasoline. They are myriad.
Indeed this should be done. I realize it's complex. However, to a first approximation, the losses to obtain gasoline are probably similar to the losses for obtaining power plant fuel, so it sort of balances out, leaving the relative efficiencies of generation, transmission, and battery charging vs the efficiency of an automotive ICE.

Didn't Karen estimate a 17% overhead loss from well to pump?

Pat Q

[Schrodinger]

Indeed this should be done. I realize it's complex. However, to a first approximation, the losses to obtain gasoline are probably similar to the losses for obtaining power plant fuel, so it sort of balances out, leaving the relative efficiencies of generation, transmission, and battery charging vs the efficiency of an automotive ICE.

Yes, and then we could accept that an ICE does not have a 100% 'charging efficiency' either. Also, energy loss of both charging and storage of gasoline is dependent upon temperature. Here in Florida, each hurricane makes it painfully obvious that transmission of gasoline has it's inefficiencies as well.

With all the complexities involved, I have to ask 'Why bother?'

If we seek to compare one car to another, why not count only those variables intrinsic to the car itself? My preference would be a tank-to-wheel comparison of energy efficiency.

Does attempting to account for each and every extrinsic factor help?

[Adreitz]

Schrodinger,

In my opinion, attempting to count as many factors as possible not only helps, but is of first importance. The choice of energy source for a vehicle affects the vehicle's impact on the environment, but it also affects the general infrastructure's impact on the environment. For example, take hydrogen fuel cells. They sound like a better solution than ICE vehicles, since they produce only water exhaust. But this doesn't take into account several other factors; for example, the need to install new infrastructure to store & transport hydrogen and the poor efficiency and environmental impact of hydrogen production methods (electrolysis, which would probably involve electricity produced from fossil fuels, or direct production from fossil fuels). If you don't consider the knock-on effects of your choice of energy source, you can easily produce a solution that is worse than the original problem.

Aaron

[NeilBlanchard]

I don't trust that 17% number. Exploration, test drilling, extraction uses quite a lot of electricity, a lot of wells now need lots of heat to "loosen" the oil -- one company is using millions of BTU's an hour from solar heat to do this; and that is only about 10% of the heat they need. The rest comes from natural gas!

And the refinement energy is getting higher and higher all the time -- we are seriously looking at the tar sands in Canada. Nissan says that in electricity alone, that ~7.5kWh is used for each gallon of gasoline produced.

And all the energy that is overhead in the electricity -- is now overhead in the gasoline! That 7.5kWh is ~22 miles in a Leaf at the rated 340Wh/mile... or ~45 miles in an EV1/eVaro/SIM-LEI.

I'm fine with Wh/mile for EV's and MPG's for gasoline (E10). But then you throw in E15/E85/diesel, and plugin hybrids...

[Jack5297]

Do any of the electric car lovers think for one moment that the State of California will pass some electric car sticker tax. It is naive to think that all of the Leaf owners will not pay one penny for maintenance of State highways and get away with it.

[SEGsby]

The same amount of taxes on electric for vehicles, STILL make it several times cheaper than gasoline. :P

[PatQ562]

Does attempting to account for each and every extrinsic factor help?
It depends on your goals. If cost is your only concern, the net price of each approach neatly wraps up ALL of these factors, including whatever taxes have been added. This is the great power of a monetary economy. Of course, gasoline taxes pay for roads, so electric cars are getting a free ride in this regard, and electric cars are expensive for a reason - it takes a lot of time, and second-order resources (workers commuting etc) to assemble a modern battery pack and electronics package.

If conservation or reduced environmental impact is your concern, then yes, you need to make a diligent attempt to account for whatever impacts you are concerned with (air quality, greenhouse gases, politicized resource locations, other environmental effects) -- otherwise, how can you be confident you're making a wise decision? I don't expect everyone to spend a year researching things, but if you create a long list of everything you can think of, and make an informed guess for each item, using information such as Wikipedia and this forum, you will produce a remarkably good estimate based on the average of all your guesses.

Of course, if you simply LIKE the experience of a modern electric car, then you can go with that as your motivation.

Pat Q

[Rembrant]

Yep, pennies per mile is the way to go. Even something as simple as that isn't consistant.
Cost is also the biggest problem with composites. I would look to aerospace for advances in all aspects of composites. The problem there is still cost. But over time they may trickle down.
They have automated layup machines but they are relatively slow. Very slow when compared to presses and some automated welding machines.
I have a number of ideas on improving composites manufacturing. I just need to win the lottery so I can build them and see if they would work.

[Schrodinger]

Thanks Aaron, Pat Q,

I understand the distinction now. Aaron was seeking to compare total environmental impact of various cars, whereas I was only interested in comparing one vehicle's efficiency to another.

I agree that internalizing all factors is critical for accurately comparing total impact.

[PatQ562]

Even the "local" efficiency of a car contains a few terms.

For a BEV (battery electric)
Transmission efficiency (92-98%)
Motor efficiency (85-93%)
Controller efficiency (95-97%)
Battery charge-discharge efficiency (80-90%)
Battery charger efficiency (90-95%).
Net "wall to wheels" efficiency: 54-75%

So you can see that even an electric car has a series of losses than can add up to a significant total.

For an ICE vehicle, "typical" efficiencies vary widely but generally fall in the 15-30% range. So there is a big gap, but if you deduct the 50-60% losses that occur converting fuel to electricity at your plug, the worst-case BEV efficiencies start matching the best-case ICE efficiencies, even after deducting the lesser overhead losses of refining and delivering gas to the station.

There's been some publicity regarding a "turbine wheel" engine that claims it's possible to boost ICE efficiency beyond 50%. If true, this would be a game-changer. Testing is supposed to occur this summer. Hopefully it will not be the long drawn out dribble of incomplete results that has occured with several other exciting "proof of concept" developments.

Pat A

[Schrodinger]

...but if you deduct the 50-60% losses that occur converting fuel to electricity at your plug...

And here is where you loose me again. Where does that efficiency value come from? What energy source are you assuming produces the electricity? If I have a generator running off of standard automotive fuel, sure, the comparison seems valid. But if I'm plugged into a bank of solar panels, does it really matter if I'm only putting 12% of the sunlight's potential into the battery? Does that make the car less efficient?

In short, if I'm standing on a dealer's lot, looking at stickers on a car's window, I'd rather not have to worry if the numbers are assuming Kentucky Coal, or Unicorn Treadmill Generation.

My preference would be to have a value for the consumption of the car using power source X, then have separate values for the cost of producing X.

[PatQ562]

And here is where you loose me again. Where does that efficiency value come from?
It's a fair guess for a nationwide average for electricity produced - combining nuclear, hydro, natural gas, oil, and coal, plus the tiny amount of other sources including solar. The average efficiency could even be lower. Of course, if you know for a fact that you're going to recharge with solar panels, or install them to feed an equivalent amount of power into the grid, you can take this into account. If you live in Seattle, more of the power comes from hydro. Here in So Cal, much of our local power uses natural gas. These facts are knowable and you can work them in, if environmental impact is important to you. Otherwise you can simply consider the relative costs, as noted.

Pat Q

[appyfan]

Well not to be a cynic... But I had a feeling this was all a dream to begin with. :/

[PatQ562]

It was a nice dream - and sometimes dreams happen, if the dreamers stay with it and make it so. IMHO, even Team A (Steve and Chris) took on too much, trying to make a vehicle with all the modern amenities while also pioneering breakthrough body structures and efficiency. If they had lowered their sights and fielded some "basic", running cars to die-hard enthusiasts as proofs of concept, there would be more to build on now. But modern brand-management theory says you need to establish your image from the start, and it's easy to get caught up in trying to eliminate all objections from the get-go.

Pat Q

[Jack5297]

The sad part of it is that the Aptera folks are still talking as if production will soon start. I don't know what they are smoking but their ploy is not working. All of us previous potential buyers with deposits have become real doubters and the only thing that will change out mind is seeing three wheels on the ground in large numbers.

[Rembrant]

"We are almost ready for production" If you want funding this is what you have to say. The more money you go through the louder you have to say it.

[palmer_md]

yes, but at this point nobody is listening. They can yell as loud as they want, but their 15 minutes on the soapbox is over.

[Tkaypro]

It was a nice dream - and sometimes dreams happen, if the dreamers stay with it and make it so. IMHO, even Team A (Steve and Chris) took on too much, trying to make a vehicle with all the modern amenities while also pioneering breakthrough body structures and efficiency. If they had lowered their sights and fielded some "basic", running cars to die-hard enthusiasts as proofs of concept, there would be more to build on now.
Pat Q

Team A did lower their sights on modern amenities to get to production. Growing organically was always their plan, but they were cut short and were never given the real budget and opportunity to do so. Paul came in four months after the ~$25 million close. He took all of 5 seconds before putting his stank on it. The "go big" plan came from the investors' (mainly Idealab who had two board seats and 51% from the very beginning) and the chairman (Idealab's long time buddy). They wanted their big exit strategy and they thought the professional management was the best way to do that. Paul always used to say that if Aptera built a couple thousand vehicles, he WASN'T the guy to do it. So they all cling to their "go big" plan like a battered wife clings and defends her abusive husband. :love0030:

-Tricia

[palmer_md]

So they all cling to their "go big" plan like a battered wife clings and defends her abusive husband.

-Tricia


When do they get to the "or go home" part of the phrase?

[SEGsby]

Wow, that's just really sad. :(

[evmavin]

If Aptera does not go into production during 2011, they might as well fold up their tent and steal away in the night. I have tested the Leaf and the Volt. The Volt is head and shoulders the front runner. Who amongst the rational beings would plunck down a sum of money in the $30,000 range with a company with a negative balance sheet, no dealer organization and no market presence? Only those who believe in the tooth fairy or that Obama will save our country.


The volt is a hybrid not an EV. Different product different price. Aptera has was dead when Darth Vader and Crusty the incompetent marketing Clown took the ship. Milk it boys, it may be the last job you can BS your way into.

[PatQ562]

Team A did lower their sights on modern amenities to get to production. Growing organically was always their plan, but they were cut short and were never given the real budget and opportunity to do so. Paul came in four months after the ~$25 million close. He took all of 5 seconds before putting his stank on it. The "go big" plan came from the investors' (mainly Idealab who had two board seats and 51% from the very beginning) and the chairman (Idealab's long time buddy). They wanted their big exit strategy and they thought the professional management was the best way to do that. Paul always used to say that if Aptera built a couple thousand vehicles, he WASN'T the guy to do it. So they all cling to their "go big" plan like a battered wife clings and defends her abusive husband.

I am of course very sorry to hear this history, as I was truly excited by the original vision of Aptera, which promised to double the efficiency of the EV1, mainly by cutting everything in half - half the weight, half the drag, half the battery requirement, ultimately the way to get half the cost. It takes a fully empowered master architect to stick to such a plan in this day of increasingly heavy, crash-proof cars. I assume the extant 2007-2008 videos reflect the "Pre PW" design mentality, but even then there was talk of rear-view cameras, apparently there were electric door latches that far back (that gave trouble), and claims of aiming for a "non penalty" non-austere vehicle. It may be that the younger generation, not having grown up with the high-efficiency cars designed in the 1940's-1960's, don't realize how basic a car can be and still provide satisfying transportation. The designs that became popular won the customer's affection by solving basic problems in an elegant way, and letting the non-essentials go. Looking at these cars today, one is amazed at the simple but innovative solutions to problems that have become completely homogenized now. This kind of fearless originality seems to be missing now in the major companies, and Aptera was the only start-up with significant capital. I assumed at the time that the investors wanted to change the world (and make some money at it), but apparently they have lost their vision in the fog of business-as-usual.

A light, smooth running, reliable electric car at a realistic price is enough to get forward-thinking drivers interested. Trying to make it look like a "real car" inside just blurs the brand promise. As interested as I was, the 2008 TED prototype made my heart sink because from the inside, there was no feeling of the light, lean design motif so visible from the outside.

Of course, the VW, Citroen 2CV, and Mini were all improved over time. The earliest versions of each were rather primitive, but the later versions added refinements and increased performance without losing the fundamental appeal of their platforms. I guess we'll never get to see how this evolution could have worked with Aptera. My sympathies for the whole sorry mess.

Pat Q

[sck_nogas]

The volt is a hybrid not an EV.
As a Volt driver, I semi-take umbrage at this. :rolleye0018:

Of my 4 months driving my Volt, I have driven 4,487.77 miles total, with 3866.61 (86.2%) (https://crichton.sacknet.org/volt/Stats/Details/10) of them using NoGas (as in EV miles)
As a non-random sampling of 15 Volts, they have driven a total of 37,574.89 EV miles which is 70.4% of their total driving.

So, yes, it's not a "pure" EV in the fact that it has a gas range extender. But, it is an EV in how most Volt drivers use it most of the time.

Scott

[NeilBlanchard]

The most accurate name for the Volt, is plugin hybrid, I think? It is great that it can meet most people's needs in EV mode, that is great.

[palmer_md]

+1 Plugin Hybrid. Even if you drive all year in EV mode, it is still a Plugin Hybrid. It is a huge step forward over the "regular" hybrid, but not truly an EV. Right now Volt sits in a class by itself, soon to be joined by the Prius Plugin Hybrid.

Were now way off topic. This probably should be in the Volt thread.

[sck_nogas]

Okay, so then is a Volt an different from a pure EV with a tow-along genset (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9d/Acp_tzero_DSC00467.jpg) that you never take off?

My main issue is with the definitions as I see them...

Gasoline - Uses Fuel to drive wheels. May use engine stop/start or deactivate cylinders.
Hybrid - Uses Fuel to charge battery and drive wheels, with low-speed Electric assist & engine stop/start.
Plug-In Hybrid - Uses Fuel to charge battery and drive wheels, but can recharge battery, with limited speed Electric drive & engine stop/start.
Extended Range Electric Vehicle - Uses Electricity to drive wheels, uses fuel to generate electricity when depleted, recharges battery only from wall power.
Electric Vehicle - Uses Electricity to drive wheels, recharges battery only from wall power.


The difference to me is...

A Plug-In Prius can go 10 miles, at up to 62 mph on electrons only and is a Plug-In Hybrid.

The Chevy Volt can go 40 miles, at up to 100 mph on electrons only and is an Extended Range Electric Vehicle.

But, I'll stop now. :)

Scott

[palmer_md]

Okay, so then is a Volt an different from a
My main issue is with the definitions as I see them...

Gasoline - Uses Fuel to drive wheels. May use engine stop/start or deactivate cylinders.
Hybrid - Uses Fuel to charge battery and drive wheels, with low-speed Electric assist & engine stop/start.
Plug-In Hybrid - Uses Fuel to charge battery and drive wheels, but can recharge battery, with limited speed Electric drive & engine stop/start.
Extended Range Electric Vehicle - Uses Electricity to drive wheels, uses fuel to generate electricity when depleted, recharges battery only from wall power.
Electric Vehicle - Uses Electricity to drive wheels, recharges battery only from wall power.


The difference to me is...

A Plug-In Prius can go 10 miles, at up to 62 mph on electrons only and is a Plug-In Hybrid.

The Chevy Volt can go 40 miles, at up to 100 mph on electrons only and is an Extended Range Electric Vehicle.

But, I'll stop now. :)

Scott

GM just made up the term extended range electric vehicle because they wanted to call their car an EV. It's not and it should be classified as a PIH.

I agree that the Volt is a better Plug-In hybrid (PIH) than the Prius version. I'm not sure why Toyota went with such a small battery. 25-30 should probably be the smallest, and 40-50 like the volt is great. With 15 mile range on the Prius, I'm not sure it is worth the extra expense over the standard hybrid.

Congratulations on your Volt purchase. I know several owners and they are all very happy with their purchase. I opted to keep my Prius and added a Leaf. So instead of a Plug-In hybrid car, I have a "Plug-In hybrid garage". One car that plug in and one that does not. Poor Prius has been doing a lot of sitting around lately.

[PatQ562]

For what it's worth, I always viewed "hybrid" as having two separate sources of power for propulsion, one of them being regenerative, since the main point is to recapture energy from braking and downhill runs. The ability to recycle otherwise wasted energy is the only real reason to install the extra batteries and motors. Idle-stop FEELS like a worthy feature but modern engines don't use much at idle, and accessory loads like AC and lights must be replenished when the engine comes back on, so those loads are only delayed, not negated. The benefits of regeneration appear to be the only fundamental reason that hybrid cars get city mpg that is equal or better than their highway mpg. Highway mpg uses little or no regen, so any efficient engine does well, but even diesels fall off 25% in stop-and-go traffic whereas both Honda and Toyota hybrids get about the same as their highway mileage.

As far as I am concerned, "plug in hybrid" means you can get SOME energy from the wall; "how much" is a function of "degree", not a basic definition. The EV-only speed and range is a reasonable indicator of performance.

The BEV-with-trailer is a different category since the range-extender is not an internal part of the vehicle.

Pat Q

[randyd]

The benefits of regeneration appear to be the only fundamental reason that hybrid cars get city mpg that is equal or better than their highway mpg. There is one other major benefit. See next comment.

Highway mpg uses little or no regen, so any efficient engine does well, but even diesels fall off 25% in stop-and-go traffic whereas both Honda and Toyota hybrids get about the same as their highway mileage.
ICE engine efficiency has always been burdened by a mis-match between the required peak power, and the typical power consumed. Accelerating from a stop requires the most power and so largely determines ICE size. Then, after initial acceleration, the (large) ICE runs at a power and speed that is less than optimal for gas mileage. A hybrid like the Prius that can combine the output power from both an ICE and an electric motor can (more closely) optimize the ICE for the typical power consumed because some of the peak power required for acceleration can come from the electric motor. With a smaller ICE and one more closely matched to the typical power requirements, gas mileage at all speeds improves. :thumbsup:
(I thought you knew that, Pat)

[PatQ562]

A hybrid like the Prius that can combine the output power from both an ICE and an electric motor can (more closely) optimize the ICE for the typical power consumed because some of the peak power required for acceleration can come from the electric motor. With a smaller ICE and one more closely matched to the typical power requirements, gas mileage at all speeds improves.

Things are not quite this simple. I agree in principle with the first part of this statement; using an electric motor to boost the peak power of a smaller ICE provides good performance and optimizes loading on the engine. But the electrical energy comes from regen, which only applies in stop-and-go driving, which is my point. Without regen, there would be minimal mpg improvement. As a thought experiment, if it were merely the small engine that gives the Prius its mpg, one could omit the fancy electrical apparatus, save hundreds of pounds, and deliver a slower but still reasonable car at the same mpg, for much lower cost. This would surely find a market, but in fact, such cars (approximated by the Yaris, Honda Fit, etc) don't match the city mpg which is the most relevant for most users. Toyota famously did a huge study on all of this which led them to the complexities of the hybrid power train.

It is certainly true that ICE engines almost never run in their zone of maximum efficiency. Part-throttle is less efficient than full-throttle, but as noted, full-throttle operation is only occasionally needed. In the old days, therefore, it improved mpg substantially to replace a large, under-utilized engine with a small unit that needed to run closer to full throttle to keep up with traffic. This difference is not nearly as great these days, because the partial-load efficiency has been improved.

The stepless CVT transmission, and multi-speed automatics, attempt to alleviate the part-throttle penalty by operating the engine at lower rpms, and higher throttles, during partial-load operation. This, combined with numerous mechanical improvements, such as variable valve timing, alternative intake paths, and turbocharging, have improved typical mpg perhaps 50% or more since the 1960's. "Full-size cars" of that era typically got 10-12 mpg; nowadays one can expect 15-20mpg.

As further evidence of part-throttle improvements, you will note that there is rarely more than a few percent difference in the mpg of the small vs larger engine options in a given car, when operated at the same speeds on the same EPA test cycle. (Your mileage may vary of course if you choose to tap into the larger engine's power to drive faster).

So the highway mpg of modern cars (which of course, is a partial-load cruise condition) has improved because of various improvements, notably wider-range transmissions that reduce rpm at crusing speed. A hybrid has nothing to add to this picture, for steady highway cruising. But the city mpg of non-hybrid cars, even with the same advantages, falls off typically 25%, whereas both the Honda Civic and Prius hybrids get about the same, city-vs-hwy. Furthermore, although I keep up with traffic, I am not a lead-foot. My observed results in two Honda Civic hybrids for city-vs-highway mpg were noted with reasonably easy-going operation, so the smaller engine was not frequently called on for full power. I did, however, take pleasure in feathering the brakes on long stops for maximum regen.

Realistically, I ascribe about half the "hybrid advantage" (say, 12%) to all-out efficiency tweaks, such as harder tires, 0-5W oil, better fairings, CVT transmissions, etc, which improve both city and hwy mpg, and the other 12%to the benefits of regen in stop-and-go driving.

Pat Q

[steve]

Hello PatQ. I sure agree with you about the need for the need of a 'fully empowered master architect' to ensure a company sticks to the plan to ensure the vision, whether it's a computer design or a vehicle! All of the early Apterae had electric latches, and many components were sourced from Hyundai Elantra built in China to ensure an affordable cost. We had sourced all of that before the "professional" team was brought in. They pretty much nixed everything from the Azure Dynamics drivetrain, to the Hyundai steering gear, latches, etc. There was no fog of business at Aptera, the word ‘business’ confers that money exchanges hands. Indeed, precious funds only left Aptera's hands…..

The interior you saw at TED was the Aptera turned-Chrysler Sebring rental-car impresario. It was and is the antithesis to everything that the original Aptera represented. The "experts" said that people liked dark plastic interiors that looked liked rental cars, and then they paid $200,000 for a 'survey' to justify that assertion. I did not feel the sense of pride driving that car around TED as I would with Zen, it was too much of a compromise in regression. Wearing the Aptera polyester ‘hairdresser’ smock didn’t help either. Hey, now that I think about it, there is a hairdresser at Aptera, he drives a boxter. I mean, a boxter is a hairdresser's car, right?

The beautiful Zen interior exists only in memory. It was ripped out and destroyed by the 'professionals'. Ironically, none of them drive Sebrings or Chryslers :-)




I am of course very sorry to hear this history, as I was truly excited by the original vision of Aptera, which promised to double the efficiency of the EV1, mainly by cutting everything in half - half the weight, half the drag, half the battery requirement, ultimately the way to get half the cost. It takes a fully empowered master architect to stick to such a plan in this day of increasingly heavy, crash-proof cars. I assume the extant 2007-2008 videos reflect the "Pre PW" design mentality, but even then there was talk of rear-view cameras, apparently there were electric door latches that far back (that gave trouble), and claims of aiming for a "non penalty" non-austere vehicle. It may be that the younger generation, not having grown up with the high-efficiency cars designed in the 1940's-1960's, don't realize how basic a car can be and still provide satisfying transportation. The designs that became popular won the customer's affection by solving basic problems in an elegant way, and letting the non-essentials go. Looking at these cars today, one is amazed at the simple but innovative solutions to problems that have become completely homogenized now. This kind of fearless originality seems to be missing now in the major companies, and Aptera was the only start-up with significant capital. I assumed at the time that the investors wanted to change the world (and make some money at it), but apparently they have lost their vision in the fog of business-as-usual.

A light, smooth running, reliable electric car at a realistic price is enough to get forward-thinking drivers interested. Trying to make it look like a "real car" inside just blurs the brand promise. As interested as I was, the 2008 TED prototype made my heart sink because from the inside, there was no feeling of the light, lean design motif so visible from the outside.

Of course, the VW, Citroen 2CV, and Mini were all improved over time. The earliest versions of each were rather primitive, but the later versions added refinements and increased performance without losing the fundamental appeal of their platforms. I guess we'll never get to see how this evolution could have worked with Aptera. My sympathies for the whole sorry mess.

Pat Q

[PatQ562]

I'm glad that the "rental car" interior was not your vision. I'm sad that this is where things went. I'm doubly sad for the entire fate of the project. The original vision was soaring California at its best, something all too rare in these shrunken times. What we have now lays there like a dead fish.

Pat Q

[SEGsby]

A big, bloated fish.