Projected Order of Sales?

[RoxChkPlusOny]

So I understand two separately-claimed statements:

1. SoCal gets served first, then NorCal, then the rest of the US.
2. The Typ-1e will get sold first, then the Typ-1h.

Any ideas how this works with the list? Like, say they sell 100 Typ-1e's to SoCal and then NorCal opens up, or the Typ-1h becomes ready, etc... Does your reservation number really tell you how long you're gonna wait for yours?

I ordered the Typ-1e, live in NorCal, and have rezno 1014.

[Yanquetino]

RoxChkPlusOny: Your guess is as good as mine here. The only information I can find about this at Aptera's web site states:

In the coming months, the MyAptera.com owners' page will be made available. On this page, you will be able to adjust any option including hybrid/electric. Nothing is final until you receive your purchase agreement about a month prior to obtaining your vehicle.

How to translate that? I dunno. I can only surmise that, if one decides to opt for an "h" model in the purchase agreement... the number gets pushed higher. And the number of those who opt for an "e" will be pushed lower. Maybe the same thing will occur when it comes to Northern vs. Southern California zip codes...? And for folks like me in another state... well, we can't even place an order yet. Bummer. :(

[Yanquetino]

This question got me perseverating a bit. Let's pretend that these are 20 customers who have reserved Apteras, in order of deposit received:

http://www.casteyanqui.com/_dibujos/apteralist1.jpg

If the company gives top priority to the customers' location, and then fulfills the pure EV models first, the order would change significantly for those folks:

http://www.casteyanqui.com/_dibujos/apteralist2.jpg

This is only speculation, of course, but it won't surprise me if Aptera resorts to a sortable spreadsheet akin to these examples to figure out who gets what, when, and where. Besides, as far as I know you can't even place an order if you live in category 3 (other states) or 4 (international), so folks like me (and all those from "Michael Johnson" on down) are SOL at this point. :mad:

[3-4-me]

WOW Yanquetino, nice spreadsheet.
So, how do you account for the 1/4 to 1/3 of depositors that will drop out?
I'm figuring that with all the fruits and flakes that live around here, my # should drop considerably.:D

P.S. I did mean that in the nicest way:p

[Yanquetino]

3-4-me: Well... you just delete those dropouts' rows on the spreadsheet, I suppose! :) And you move up accordingly. :D Come to think of it, you could delete the last 8 rows in the re-ordered example anyway --since they aren't accepting orders for those of us outside of California! :(

[RoxChkPlusOny]

Very nice spreadsheet, Yanquetino :) I see you paid attention to even accents!

I imagine this, that they would first sell e=>1 (electric version to SoCal), and say 2 opens up. So they open e=>2, but at only 25% of the total capacity, so they're going down the list with both e1s and e2s. Then the h becomes available, and say they have only enough infrastructure to make them in 1 so far, so they got like 50% e1, 25% e2, and 25% h1. Finally, 2 gets some love, and they can proceed with some distribution through all four. You end up with four lines, kinda like how they do the DMV, where some sort of load balancing algorithm continues to prefer people earlier in line. Maybe? Maybe. But it's so delicate - I wouldn't want to be passed over!

[mt2]

I speculate that it's kind of like RoxChkPlusOny says, only more so. You can't sell a vehicle till you have the ability to manufacture it and you can't sell to a market until you have the infrastructure to service it in that market. So it becomes more of a decision tree than an ordered list.

Work down the list and ask, "Have we opened up sales in that market?". If yes, "Have we got the vehicle to fullfill the order?" If yes, that's where the reservation number comes into play.

[3-4-me]

When I first made my reservation, I was under the impression that my car would have the same # as my res slot.
After rereading the reservation page, It doesn't seem to have anything to do with it.
You then reserve a production slot that assures what Aptera you will receive. This number will be e-mailed to you after your reservation and will coincide with a numbered Aptera that leaves our assembly line.
These production slots are first come first serve so the earlier you reserve yours the sooner you will be driving your Aptera around town.
I agree it's: who has the lowest number for the type of vehicle currently available.
You could have the #1 slot, but if you reserved for the "h", you might be 100 or more on the list.

[butter]

Has anyone got any new ideas? Okay -- I know there really aren't that many other possibilities out there, unless they decide to go crazy and just pick numbers out of a hat.

But I guess I felt like reviving this thread cause it's a little old, and because I'm a relative late-comer, at #1294 -- BUT I live in Los Angeles and I only want the type e.

Hope I can get an Aptera before Christmas 2009!!!!

Every time I drive, I fantasize about how I'd be adjusting my driving to accomodate the wide front wheels... as well as the wide-eyed stares from everyone around me... sigh

[RoxChkPlusOny]

Unless they smash into some sort of delay, you should be pretty early in the list of recipients for a car... perhaps even by the end of this year, if you're lucky! See, LA is served first, and with the e model. You're both, so your effective place in line could be as high as 200, as in you could get the 200th car off the lot. That's me assuming a little more than half of the signups are from LA and a few less than half are for the model e.

[butter]

I love you RoxChkPlusOny, thank you for feeding my Aptera hunger and letting me linger a little on the fantasy of being further ahead in line than appears. Right or wrong, thanks!!

your name, btw, is quite a type-ful.

[RoxChkPlusOny]

Haha, I aim to please. I'm in NorCal with model e, so I could be part of the second or third block of people getting their cars. My number was somewhere in the low 1000s... I'd have to look in the other thread to remind myself but I'm feeling lazy tonight. You'll get yours before me, probably!

[KarenRei]

Anyone know whether it'd be possible to delay if they get to you before you're ready, or whether if you decline the offer, you move to the back of the line? I'm getting a Typ-1e through an intermediary, and the intermediary lives in SoCal, so I'm starting to get a little concerned about how much I might get bumped up. I don't want mine before spring of '09. Initially, it looked like those who pre-ordered this winter wouldn't be getting theirs until late '10 or so, which is why I was so concerned about ordering through an intermediary rather than waiting and falling even further behind in line.

If Aptera changes it so that the whole US can pre-order within the next few months, I'll probably use that as an excuse to get to the back of the line.

[fritzponds]

I wonder where the central coast falls in the Socal / Norcal game?

[butter]

That's a good question. I wonder if it might be by zipcode/distance from HQ...?

[AT802]

Good points Karen , we can't even put in our deposits in Arkansas. We outside of California will be counting on those inside to keep us informed of what's going on. It may appear from now on since no updates on Aptera website in a while, and no corespondence from emails in a while either , you preregistered guys maybe could start a thread if any new privelaged info comes in.

[Dubito]

I wonder how many who put down the refundable $500 will actually purchase the Aptera. Not nearly the same commitment as for a Tesla. Guess we won’t know until they start rolling off the line.

AT802, rest assured that when new info comes in for those of us on line, it’ll be posted here in minutes.

[futura]

Anyone know whether it'd be possible to delay if they get to you before you're ready, or whether if you decline the offer, you move to the back of the line? I'm getting a Typ-1e through an intermediary, and the intermediary lives in SoCal, so I'm starting to get a little concerned about how much I might get bumped up. I don't want mine before spring of '09. Initially, it looked like those who pre-ordered this winter wouldn't be getting theirs until late '10 or so, which is why I was so concerned about ordering through an intermediary rather than waiting and falling even further behind in line.


This might be too much of a finesse, but you could order the Typ1-h and change to "e" at the "1-month before build purchase agreement" time. The last I heard from Aptera was they are releasing "All electric" before "Serial hybrid" and plan to deliver pre-ordered vehicles first to the San Diego area, followed by Los Angeles area, followed by San Francisco Bay area".
Cheers.

[Dubito]

...plan to deliver pre-ordered vehicles first to the San Diego area, followed by Los Angeles area, followed by San Francisco Bay area".
Cheers.


Futura,
If I’ve got a number, I’ve got a place on line, yes? They aren’t going to sell an aptera to someone with a higher number because they live in San Diego, right? Unless they blocked off, say, the first 500 to San Diego and the second 500 to LA, but I think we would have caught that by now.
Craig

[butter]

My impression -- just an impression, mind you; at this point we're all somewhat guessing here -- was that they would indeed sell all-electrics to SD before LA, in numerical order *after* geographic locations were determined.

Someone earlier put out a very nice little "pure conjecture" spreadsheet on how people with deposits would be reordered -- first by type (all-electric or hybrid?), then by location (closest to Carlsbad), then by number.

The chart was very good; if you scroll up in this thread (or perhaps it was in a diff. thread, but it's out there somewhere)... it certainly made the most objective sense to me, and it's worth a look if you're curious and would like to indulge your fantasy for the next several months like the rest of us, heh...

[Dubito]

Butter,
Looked at the chart and re-read this entire thread, but my reservation says “Production Slot: 8xx” not deposit #, or some other malleable number. Obviously if I’m waiting on a hybrid, but they’re only making electrics, they wouldn’t be able to deliver a car that doesn’t exist. But besides that, my deposit is holding a place in line. If someone lives across the street from the factory, but their production slot number is higher than mine, they’ll receive their aptera after me. This new company wouldn’t lose credibility by not honoring their commitment.

Goodnight aptera junkies,
Craig

[futura]

Futura,
If I’ve got a number, I’ve got a place on line, yes? They aren’t going to sell an aptera to someone with a higher number because they live in San Diego, right? Unless they blocked off, say, the first 500 to San Diego and the second 500 to LA, but I think we would have caught that by now.
Craig

Dubito,

I understand the confusion with the slot #'s. Here's the email I received.
"Hello,

Our plan is to deliver pre-ordered vehicles first in the San Diego area, then expand deliveries to the Los Angeles area, followed by the San Francisco Bay area. While this rollout plan may affect you and others, we believe that by solving every delivery, support, and service issue locally first, we will be better prepared for bringing you the best product possible when the time is right. Production slots will still be taken into account by area. Reservation holders will receive approximate build dates in the future.

Thanks,

emily mizutani | aptera
client relations
carlsbad, ca 92010
"

Cheers

[Dubito]

Thanks for sharing Futura, like the black Aptera.

[gg222]

Has anyone got any new ideas? Okay -- I know there really aren't that many other possibilities out there, unless they decide to go crazy and just pick numbers out of a hat.

But I guess I felt like reviving this thread cause it's a little old, and because I'm a relative late-comer, at #1294 -- BUT I live in Los Angeles and I only want the type e.

Hope I can get an Aptera before Christmas 2009!!!!

Every time I drive, I fantasize about how I'd be adjusting my driving to accomodate the wide front wheels... as well as the wide-eyed stares from everyone around me... sigh

Funny, I'm doing the same thing!

[johnvall]

I would like to know, Is aptera taking only 2500 reservations? Is it taking 2500 reservations per model?

[KarenRei]

2500 total. Whether this means "up to order #2500" or "up to car #2500" (remember, some orders have been cancelled, mainly due to them instituting the California-only policy) is unknown. Also, this is just 2500 for the target date of '09 delivery. I don't know whether they plan to keep accepting preorders after that for '10.

Oh, and as for me, whenever I'm in the car with my partner, I always find something new about the drive that would be better/more interesting if it were an Aptera. "You know, that object rattling in the back seat against the door wouldn't rattle in an Aptera, since you don't get that sort of vibration with an electric motor." "You know, it would have been easier to fit this tree and these bags of compost into the car if it were an Aptera." "Oh, I really wish this were the Aptera so we could have fun speeding past that Hummer H2. I want to film that and put that on YouTube." ;)

And as for when I get mine, I hope I get mine around my birthday of '09 (summer). With a Typ-1e order in SoCal and a moderate order number, that sounds about right. I should also have some extra cash from my parents that spring, which would mean easier to get the money for the purchase.

[garygid]

Karen,
According to my guesses (http://www.apteraforum.com/showthread.php?t=778), #1000 would come up in July,
and #1100 in August 2009.

Is that too late for your b-day?
But, these are just my current estimates.

[KarenRei]

A little late, but no big worry. I'll just be happy to get it at some point next year.

[dmtaub]

Dubito,

I understand the confusion with the slot #'s. Here's the email I received.
"Hello,

Our plan is to deliver pre-ordered vehicles first in the San Diego area, then expand deliveries to the Los Angeles area, followed by the San Francisco Bay area. While this rollout plan may affect you and others, we believe that by solving every delivery, support, and service issue locally first, we will be better prepared for bringing you the best product possible when the time is right. Production slots will still be taken into account by area. Reservation holders will receive approximate build dates in the future.

Thanks,

emily mizutani | aptera
client relations
carlsbad, ca 92010
"

Cheers

So, since I am in San Diego, about 15 miles from their plant, could I assume that even though I opted for a 1h and have a slot # of 1577, I could get mine earlier than say someone in Nor Cal with slot number 500?

I would think based on the information on the website and the info in this e-mail that they would be building the car that each person wanted for each slot? So if slot 1 was electric, they get an electric, but if 2-7 are hybrid, then they build hybrids and flip-flop back and forth. Or am I completely wrong?

[aptera1213]

Karen,
According to my guesses (http://www.apteraforum.com/showthread.php?t=778), #1000 would come up in July,
and #1100 in August 2009.

Is that too late for your b-day?
But, these are just my current estimates.


oooh, maybe i'll get mine by my birthday in sept??

[aptera1213]

So, since I am in San Diego, about 15 miles from their plant, could I assume that even though I opted for a 1h and have a slot # of 1577, I could get mine earlier than say someone in Nor Cal with slot number 500?

I would think based on the information on the website and the info in this e-mail that they would be building the car that each person wanted for each slot? So if slot 1 was electric, they get an electric, but if 2-7 are hybrid, then they build hybrids and flip-flop back and forth. Or am I completely wrong?


they will be doing all electric at first...the hybrids come later...so, electric version 500 could come before hybrid version 1...nobody knows exactly how it will work, but if you want one as fast as possible, go electric only...

i've got a hybrid on order, but might change it to an electric to:
1 get it sooner
2 i'm starting to think i will use it only around town...

originally i wanted it to commute, but also to go visit my daughter in phoenix...but being all electric and having no gas fill ups is starting to look more attractive to me (though i would still love love love to drive this puppy cross country)

[KarenRei]

Dmtaub: If you get an all-electric and want to drive cross country, and if we can make the RV park charging option work out, I'd love to take part in a trip. That would be so fun -- a small fleet of cars that look like they just arrived from Mars going across the country using no more power than you save by turning off your AC and nonessential devices at home before you leave. :)

[gg222]

typ-1h invited? :)

[aptera1213]

Dmtaub: If you get an all-electric and want to drive cross country, and if we can make the RV park charging option work out, I'd love to take part in a trip. That would be so fun -- a small fleet of cars that look like they just arrived from Mars going across the country using no more power than you save by turning off your AC and nonessential devices at home before you leave. :)


karen dear, i was quoting dmtaub...i'm the one thinking of going all electric, but still would love to go cross country...have a daughter in phoenix, a daughter in albuquerque and family in florida and all up the east coast including south carolina and maryland...would be lots of miles, hence the hybrid on order...

but i'm quite tempted to change to all electric...especially if we can up grade the batteries in a year or so and get 2 times the distance or more

[SpyderMike]

typ-1h invited? :)

someone has to tow them...

[Apteratude]

Dubito,

I understand the confusion with the slot #'s. Here's the email I received.
"Hello,

Our plan is to deliver pre-ordered vehicles first in the San Diego area, then expand deliveries to the Los Angeles area, followed by the San Francisco Bay area. While this rollout plan may affect you and others, we believe that by solving every delivery, support, and service issue locally first, we will be better prepared for bringing you the best product possible when the time is right. Production slots will still be taken into account by area. Reservation holders will receive approximate build dates in the future.

Thanks,

emily mizutani | aptera
client relations
carlsbad, ca 92010
"

Cheers

Does anyone else see this as a huge revelation? This means me, @ #'s 989, and 2274, will receive my Aptera's before someone in LA with # 200 for example gets theirs!

Well, Kind of interesting. And, good news for me. Although the news is not so good for those who live in central/NorCal.

[KarenRei]

typ-1h invited?

Hey, the more confused people look as we drive past, the better ;)

I was telling my partner the other day, after she was telling me how little kids mobbed her when she was taking our parrot for a walk... if we bring Mal (the parrot) with us in the Aptera and stop near a place with children, we might as well just be wearing clown suits, because the circus will have officially come to town ;)

[pk-sd]

I am 15-20 miles from Carlsbad. I do not think there are more than 30 Aptera reservations ahead of me in San Diego. So there is a possibility I might get mine within few months after 1h are produced. Not sure I want to be that early, I wonder if they would let me delay it by few months.

[SpyderMike]

Does anyone else see this as a huge revelation? This means me, @ #'s 989, and 2274, will receive my Aptera's before someone in LA with # 200 for example gets theirs!


Nope - prudent business. I didn't look at my deposit as chassis no 1008. I looked at it as the 1008th person to make a deposit (although I must admit that I thought they may have started the numbers at 500 to make people think there were more deposits than actual).

I know my reservation says Production Slot 1008, but I recently bought another low volume niche vehicle and got S/N 20 when I placed the order. Two years later, it wasn't the 20th car made, but it does have 20th serial number is on a few of the parts and it probably shipped out the door of the factory somewhere around 20 +- 10.

Actually, I hope I don't get one of the first 500 - I would rather wait until the early bugs are sorted out.

[organic]

I paid for a "Production Slot Number" anything less and what was the point of me having $500 sit in Apteras account for 5 months?



FROM THE APTERA SITE WHEN I PAID.
1 You select the Aptera type (All electric or Plug-In Electric Hybrid)

2 You then reserve a production slot that assures what Aptera you will receive. This number will be e-mailed to you after your reservation and will coincide with a numbered Aptera that leaves our assembly line

[pk-sd]

I paid for a "Production Slot Number" anything less and what was the point of me having $500 sit in Apteras account for 5 months?

Money does not sit in Aptera' account. It held in escrow by Authorize.net.

[SpyderMike]

I paid for a "Production Slot Number" anything less and what was the point of me having $500 sit in Apteras account for 5 months?


generally to lock in price and priority. they can have any priority scheme they like. if you don't like it, you can get your money back. at this point there is no sales contract and they don't owe us squat.

[DHercyk]

I wonder what price these wll go for on Ebay if someone gets one of the early Type-1's and lives in San Diego and decides to sell it.

I had too many laughs at our office before Christmas at all who were going nuts looking for the Wii. And, this is much cooler than a Wii.

Just wondering.

[esmith]

oooh, maybe i'll get mine by my birthday in sept??

I seem to recall someone from Aptera Motors saying that they plan to fill all reservations by the second half of 2009. That's 2500 vehicles to build in less than a year. Sounds a bit far-fetched but let's say they can pull this off. One way to do it is to have production lines producing 4 vehicles per day (80 vehicles/month) and commission a new production line every 2 months starting October (accelerated garygid's schedule):

Nov '08: 80
Dec '08: 160, start 2nd production line
Jan '09: 320
Feb '09: 480, start 3rd production line
Mar '09: 720
Apr '09: 960, start 4th production line
May '09: 1280
Jun '09: 1600, start 5th production line
Jul '09: 2000
Aug '09: 2400

Based on my recent poll, we're looking at 250 reservations from San Diego, 1250 reservations from elsewhere in SoCal, and 1000 reservations from Bay Area.

In this scenario, they would fill all reservations from SD during December and start trucking newly produced vehicles into the L.A. dealership in January.

P.S. a few things I did not consider:

* It's possible that their first production line will only make typ-1e's. This obviously changes the priorities.

* They will probably allow customers from south Orange County to pick up their vehicles in Carlsbad. If that's the case, they will go on the same priority list as San Diegans.

Dealerships have to centrally placed because you have to be able to drive your new 1e home on the initial charge, so the only way to serve people from Santa Barbara and Riverside is to place the dealership somewhere near LA proper. Therefore, if you live in Irvine, you'll have to drive 60 miles one way to pick up the car anyway. Why not let you do it in Carlsbad.

* Cancellations.

We don't know what the cancellation rate will be, and we don't know what rate they are using in their "2nd half of 2009" projections. Maybe they are counting on 50% cancellation rate. That would make the target much easier to hit. But if gasoline is $6/gal by Christmas, the cancellation rate may be much lower. Conversely, maybe they are hoping for near-zero cancellation rate and people don't like the car so everyone takes a walk. It's impossible to predict now.

They seem to be on track to fill all 2500 by May 20'th. I expect them to publish some sort of draft delivery schedule in early June.

[dmtaub]

they will be doing all electric at first...the hybrids come later...so, electric version 500 could come before hybrid version 1...nobody knows exactly how it will work, but if you want one as fast as possible, go electric only...

i've got a hybrid on order, but might change it to an electric to:
1 get it sooner
2 i'm starting to think i will use it only around town...

originally i wanted it to commute, but also to go visit my daughter in phoenix...but being all electric and having no gas fill ups is starting to look more attractive to me (though i would still love love love to drive this puppy cross country)

Totally understandable point. But why would they go out of the way to say we have a production slot if they are not producing that car at that slot. Then it seems dumb to have such a built up hype on the number. I am going to wait, no matter what (unless the wife says otherwise) for the car. I just have to make the decision if I want to do electric or hybrid.

[SpyderMike]

what is the earliest number of someone on this forum?

[DHercyk]

This was the earliest I could find via the Calendar

----------------------------------------------

Aptera Reserveration #35 Placed
Calendar: Default Calendar
gg222

09-24-2007
by Dolphyn

[Apt Performer]

I thought long and hard about this and decided to go hybrid. I figured that, at least in the early builds, the gas engine back-up would be a virtual safety feature should I get into a situation where the battery becomes completely discharged, or something goes wrong in the battery system and (assuming the vehicle works this way) the gas engine is there to take over. Hopefully, 70-80% of my driving will be in situations where the gas engine hardly ever kicks in. I'm around 1039 in the deposit spree. I'm still not certain of that is 1039 overall or 1039 in hybrids...

And like others I'm very content being a little further down the line (in number and my LA location). My hope is that by the time they get to building my car they will have had about a thousand under their belts to make mine PERFECT! :)

[esmith]

I thought long and hard about this and decided to go hybrid. I figured that, at least in the early builds, the gas engine back-up would be a virtual safety feature should I get into a situation where the battery becomes completely discharged, or something goes wrong in the battery system and (assuming the vehicle works this way) the gas engine is there to take over. Hopefully, 70-80% of my driving will be in situations where the gas engine hardly ever kicks in. I'm around 1039 in the deposit spree. I'm still not certain of that is 1039 overall or 1039 in hybrids...


Their gas engine is not hooked up to the drivetrain. It is only used to recharge the battery. Unless there is some sort of reserve battery, if your main battery dies, you'll be stuck.

[n_dawg]

I thought long and hard about this and decided to go hybrid. I figured that, at least in the early builds, the gas engine back-up would be a virtual safety feature should I get into a situation where the battery becomes completely discharged, or something goes wrong in the battery system and (assuming the vehicle works this way) the gas engine is there to take over. Hopefully, 70-80% of my driving will be in situations where the gas engine hardly ever kicks in.

Remember, the all-electric range of the 'Aptera Everywhere' Typ-1h is only around 40 miles. Without knowledge of your commuting schedule, it's hard to determine what kind of energy mix you'd experience.

I'm around 1039 in the deposit spree. I'm still not certain of that is 1039 overall or 1039 in hybrids...

The current thinking is that is is 1039 overall.

[3-4-me]

Totally understandable point. But why would they go out of the way to say we have a production slot if they are not producing that car at that slot. Then it seems dumb to have such a built up hype on the number. I am going to wait, no matter what (unless the wife says otherwise) for the car. I just have to make the decision if I want to do electric or hybrid.

Thinking about it, I can't say that I've seen hype from the factory.
It seems the hype comes from the forum, and never ending speculation.
Don't get me wrong, I'm obviously excited to be in the first 1000.
It won't be the end of the world if my car isn't numbered 976 though.
I would hope it's in the ballpark.

I'm still kinda on the fence about a "h" or "e". I'll wait for the test drive to decide.

[Matthijs]

This was the earliest I could find via the Calendar

----------------------------------------------

Aptera Reserveration #35 Placed
Calendar: Default Calendar
gg222

09-24-2007
by Dolphyn

Is #20 already added to the calender?

#20

[Apt Performer]

Seems to me that (and this is more observation than judgment) if it only drives the battery and not the car, shouldn't they refer to it as a gasoline-driven generator rather than an engine? Don't other hybrids with gas-assisted engines like the Prius also drive the engine as opposed to just recharging the battery?

Please forgive my obvious lack of knowledge in this area.

[esmith]

The right way of saying it is that there is an internal combustion engine that drives an electric generator. This design is called a "series hybrid". Series hybrids are rare. Most hybrid cars are parallel hybrids (where an ICE and an electric motor are both directly connected to the transmission). Prius is a combined hybrid, it can do both.