1/11/08 - 3-wheeled Aptera aspires to car-pool lane - usatoday.com

[c0mp13x]

More new coverage on USA Today with new pics: Aptera on USA Today (http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2008-01-10-aptera_N.htm)

Electric range was quoted as 190 miles (rather than the 120 we have been seeing), I'll have to assume that was the author's error unless it has really changed. Steve quoted as saying they have about 400 deposits, but we all know that number is over 1000. He also tells us how a small company selects low rolling resistance tires and that initial production will be about 2-3 vehicles a week. It's gonna take quite awhile to work through that deposit list!

[Yanquetino]

The 190 miles per charge reported in the article might be a typo, or perhaps accurate for a Typ-1h with a 2-gallon tank...? Or maybe Steve is projecting better numbers based on more recent battery decisions...? That would be great, if so!

I kinda doubt it, however, because the article also states that 400 customers have put down deposits. That number is anything but current. Here in the forum we know very well that there are well over a thousand lined up now.

There are other numbers reported that raise some eyebrows. For example, the article states:

The goal is to produce two or three cars a week once production begins.

Yow! That is a lot less than the 2 or 3 per day that we have bantered about in other posts here. At that rate, they could build only 104 to 156 Apteras in a year's time --no vacations, no holidays. If true, this means that the 1,000th customer wouldn't take deliver for nearly... 7 years! :eek: No way!

Another quote states:

The company expects to become profitable once production hits 160 vehicles.

In other words, after a solid year of building 3 vehicles per day, the company will have earned... about $4,800,000 in sales. That will be the extent of their debt? Then what about the $20 to $40 million they claimed to need from investors?

Obviously, we can't rely on any of these numbers. There are just too many nebulous --if not contradictory-- figures being thrown around. Hopefully their web site will clarify any and all such projections in the near future.

[RoxChkPlusOny]

The money they need from investors could still be plausible, though. Imagine that they have x number of people who can make, say 3 cars a week. Should they have $40 million to work with, they could hire y people and build some extra infrastructure so that (x + y) people can make 30 cars a day. This would be a win because then they could hope to reach profitability much more quickly.

Assuming the figures are correct and they're $5 million in debt, getting that kind of loan and production capacity (assuming also that they will sell like wii's), they will start $45 million in the hole and earn $5 million per week on 150 cars. Profitability will come in 9 weeks should they be inducing slave labor :-D This grossly oversimplifies every cost, but the idea is there - if the sought investment does bring the promised production, they should go for it from a business standpoint.

[c0mp13x]

The 190 miles per charge reported in the article might be a typo, or perhaps accurate for a Typ-1h with a 2-gallon tank...?I think the Typ-1h could do 190 miles with a one gallon gas tank! See the Performance tab of the Vehicle Details Section (http://www.aptera.com/details.php)


Or maybe Steve is projecting better numbers based on more recent battery decisions...? He does mention in the article that they have decided on Lithium Phosphate batteries. This chemistry is know to be the safest Lithium type (i.e. avoiding overheating/explosions) at the sacrifice of highest performance (lower energy density).

Lithium Phosphate Batteries for Vehicles (http://www.lithiumtech.com/pr51407.htm)


Then what about the $20 to $40 million they claimed to need from investors? This money would be to build a real factory beyond the industrial space they currently occupy in Carlsbad. With a real production-line factory in a larger space, the thought is that they could ramp up to producing 2-3 vehicles a day, not a week.

I can't see them ever working their way through that 1000 deposit customer list unless they get that factory funding. And timing is everything... if too much time passes, all the other electric vehicle manufacturers will brings new cars to market and grab Aptera's impatient customers. Tough business for sure...

[MegaAutoBit]

After reading this article and seeing the inconsistence with previously reported figures, it is my belief that the interview for this article may have taken place some time ago last year.

Regarding the production specifications of two to three cars a week may be misleading. We already know from the Popular Mechanics article that Aptera is planning a small initial production run of 40 units. This initial run may be the two to three a week production the article refers to from the key words, “once production begins”.

[Matthijs]

But some involved with alternative-power vehicles warn that buyers could be dubious about the three-wheel arrangement. That worries some alternative-energy advocates. "The challenge of three-wheel cars is the majority of them are being made to circumvent safety regulations," says Chelsea Sexton of Plug In America, a group pushing development of plug-in hybrid cars. "Will consumers be able get their heads around driving something with only three wheels?"

Ehm I can't believe she could have said this. She is very pro electric and welcomes every alternative. This article isn't very positive.

Even then, it could be a tough sell, says Ron Cogan, publisher of GreenCar.com, a website and journal devoted to environmentally friendly transportation.

"Consumers are hesitant to buy into new concepts until they prove themselves on the road," Cogan says. "The market for three-wheel vehicles has been slim to none, and I don't see that changing in a significant way anytime soon."

Well that's very positive NOT Greencar.com :mad:

[Yanquetino]

Now, folks: let's not overreact. Chelsea didn't say all three-wheel cars, she said a "majority of them." And there is a grain of truth in what she says --especially when we remember what a "majority" would mean to her (or any of us) just a few short months ago. After all, a Zap Xebra (http://www.zapworld.com/electric-vehicles/electric-cars/xebra-sedan) or a Myers NmG (http://www.myersmotors.com/) don't exactly strike me as very "safe" alternatives either. Certainly they can't compare to what is planned with the Aptera and the VentureOne (http://www.flytheroad.com/).

Chelsea has probably never seen an Aptera in person, let alone been in one, and thus can't really attest to how "safe" it feels. Since she is the executive director of Plug-In America, and probably the most recognizable --and truly likeable-- EV advocate, I would strongly suggest that Steve Fambro drive over to her place and let her take it for a test drive.

She is actually a pretty shy gal, despite all the media coverage she appears in, so she might be a bit embarrassed by all the attention she would get driving an Aptera, but I predict that she will nonetheless be impressed enough to post a photo of it on Plug-In America's web site so that it rotates among those already there for the eBox, the Tesla, the Volt, etc.