First Post of a spambot

[outfilmit]

at www.apteraforum.com, and have never really registered at that many forums before, but like this one.
Didn't mean to post in "General Aptera Typ-1 Discussion" Cause I wasn't really sure where else to post.

I've been lurking here at www.apteraforum.com for a little bit, and just decided to register and give it a go today.
Well, just saying Hola, and I like the threads here.

Ciao
especially yours
Andrea

P.S I'll be lurking ;)

[3-4-me]

Welcome outfilmit,

The more the merrier.
Enjoy you're lurking, just remember to say hi once in a while.
Otherwise, it's just creepy:D

[AT802]

This is my second post, a few questions. How old is this forum, did any one get the first vignettes , I got three? I am from Arkansas and am debating on giving $500 refund (not refund down payment), if possible. I was disappointed to see the type Ih priced to 29,000.

[3-4-me]

Welcome AT802.
I graduated HS in AR, and went to Tech in Russellville. Little chilly there now huh?
I think this forum started sometime in Dec. I found it in Jan.
I'm not sure what you mean by vignette(as far as I know I don't have any:D )
I hear you about the price, but have you shopped for new cars lately? You can't get anything decent for much less than that.
I'm not the kind of guy that buys things sight unseen(far from it). But I dig this car enough that I put my money down.
I just hope it lives up to my expectations.

[futura]

This is my second post, a few questions. How old is this forum, did any one get the first vignettes , I got three?

When I saw "vignettes" I thought you might be talking about those road tax stickers they have in some European countries that allow you to pass on toll roads...but then, Arkansas?

I hear you on the price. I have cars and kids aplenty but when I showed them the Aptera and said "that's our next car" and they looked aghast, I thought of the quote from the lead singer of punk band Black Flag: "All it takes is one person to stand up and say 'F*** this!' ". I think that is the message of the car, the company (and some of the drivers) and I support it. Next stop www.affordable-solar.com.
Cheers.

[KarenRei]

Arkansas, chilly? Lol ;) My lawn is still completely covered in a couple inches of snow.

<$30k is a great deal for an EV or PHEV. Heck, some NEVs cost almost that much. It's barely more than a Prius. Heck, the cheapest hybrid on the market, the Aura Greenline mild hybrid, is $22k. And for that matter, <$30k is a great deal for any car not mass produced by a major manufacturer, let alone an EV with a composite shell, nav system, solar panel, ridiculously low drag, and on and on.

If you see someone selling a PHEV for less than the Typ-1h, subject it to lots of scrutiny, because it may well be a scam. Batteries simply are not cheap. Aptera only manages to get around the problem by making the car so low drag that it doesn't need much in terms of batteries.

[3-4-me]

Good points KarenRei.
My dad just came back from Arkansas. They're in the deep freeze now. They got 5" of snow with temps in the -20's:eek:
I'm looking forward to 80 today, thank you very much:cool:

[futura]

<$30k is a great deal for an EV or PHEV. Heck, some NEVs cost almost that much. It's barely more than a Prius. Heck, the cheapest hybrid on the market, the Aura Greenline mild hybrid, is $22k. And for that matter, <$30k is a great deal for any car not mass produced by a major manufacturer, let alone an EV with a composite shell, nav system, solar panel, ridiculously low drag, and on and on.

... Batteries simply are not cheap. Aptera only manages to get around the problem by making the car so low drag that it doesn't need much in terms of batteries.

I still think AT802's point about cost is valid. At $30k, Aptera is skirting "diminishing returns" for buyers. Is $30K a "great deal" for a three wheel motorcycle? Less than a year ago it was "under $20k"; which would make a lot of people overlook that the battery pack may need replacing in a few years and the safety (for now) must be trusted to computer simulation. Aptera will run out of "early adopter" types and have to compete with the Toyotas, Hondas & perhaps GM. The Japanese took over the car market here by focusing on cost first. For me, the cost could go up and I'd still buy. But I sort of have an "agenda" and can afford a bit more. I want the company to succeed but more importantly I want the concept to succeed --we can get all the benefits of personal transport without driving updated Conestoga wagons. Efficiency rules nature and I like driving a car that mimics that theme.
For the record, I'm ordering the Typ1-e. I'll pocket the $3K savings and put it towards what I hope will be a longer range battery 3 yrs later.
Cheers.

p.s. at the risk of going way "off thread topic" I read the Vectrix electric motorcycle is not selling at all well (<150 total). It seems to be a good implementation but just too darn much $$.

[KarenRei]

"Is $30K a "great deal" for a three wheel motorcycle?"

How does the number of wheels matter in terms of what it provides? Your ride in it will hardly be any different than if it had four wheels.

As for whether it's a "great deal", gas prices are $4/gal. Let's say that due to the far greater simplicity, EV maintenance averages $20/mo while gasoline maintenance averages $50/mo, after accounting for the "big costs" that have to be spread out over a long period, given long-life batteries (more on that later). Let's say that you're the average driver and average 40 miles a day. Let's say that whatever car you purchase will last the ~15 years or so that the average car lasts these days (we'll assume that residual value will carry over in resale if needed). For now, let's ignore interest and inflation for simplicity, and assume that ongoing registration/insurance costs are the same (we can factor that in later). How much does the Aptera cost you over, say, a $12k 30mpg junky econobox?

Econobox: 12,000 (purchase) + 2,000 (taxes & fees) + (15 (years) * 365.24 (days) * 40 (miles) / 30 (miles/gallon) * 4 (dollars)) + (15 (years) * 12 (months) * 50 (dollars)) = $52,219.20

Aptera: 27,000 (purchase) + 3,000 (taxes & fees) - 5,000 (tax rebates over the life of the car for it being an EV) + (15 (years) * 365.24 (days) * 40 (miles) * 80 (Wh/mi) / 1000 (Wh/kWh) * 0.12 (dollars/kWh)) + (15 (years) * 12 (months) * 20 (dollars)) = $30,703.78

Where's the bad deal here? Even when you factor in that interest accumulates faster than inflation negates it, and perhaps a higher insurance cost, it's still a clear winner.

Some time, I should make an vehicle economics calculator similar to my solar power economics calculator:

http://www.daughtersoftiresias.org/progs/insolation/

"Less than a year ago it was "under $20k""

Which was completely unrealistic. It's nice that they're well grounded now.

"which would make a lot of people overlook that the battery pack may need replacing in a few years"

Aptera is using lithium phosphate batteries. They haven't announced a manufacturer, but one thing is for certain: li-po batteries last a long time, through thousands of cycles, and are quite safe.

"and the safety (for now) must be trusted to computer simulation."

1) You know very well that they're going to be doing real-world crash tests

2) Computer crash tests are generally considered a mark of quality for a vehicle these days, not a mark against it. They allow designers to test every conceivable possible crash situation, and these days they're quite accurate. All of the major auto manufacturers are moving toward more and more computer crash tests.

"Aptera will run out of "early adopter" types"

I've seen no sign of that happening. The reservations keep pouring in. Aptera is in an interesting situation in that relatively few people know about them at this point.

"and have to compete with the Toyotas, Hondas & perhaps GM."

They're all making PHEVs, not EVs, and they're equally (if not more) expensive (for example, the Volt is $35k). Mitsubishi is making an EV, but they have no plans to launch it in the US at this point. I think Nissan also is looking at a possible US EV, but that's still in planning. And none of them even come close to the Aptera in terms of efficiency.

[KarenRei]

To follow up on the battery issue: if I remember right, A123 batteries are rated for 10+ years and ~7,000 cycles -- and even that doesn't mean it dies then, simply that it's lost relevant (I think 20% or so) capacity. I doubt anyone is going to be replacing their batteries unless they *want to* because some better batteries have died out. Even if they had to replace them all once, the Typ-1e only has 10kWh of batteries -- not a whole lot. By the time you had to replace them, I'd be surprised if the pack cost more than $2-3k.

[Dubito]

Aptera is using lithium phosphate batteries. They haven't announced a manufacturer, but one thing is for certain: li-po batteries last a long time, through thousands of cycles, and are quite safe.

Actually, I find Li-po (lithium polymer) batteries last no longer than Li-ion batteries. Under hard usage I don’t get many more than 100 cycles. Lithium Phosphate (A123) batteries last far longer. 1,000s of cycles under severe stress and they lose just a few percent of capacity. Don’t know how long (in years) they’ll last.

[LQUAN]

I think when KarenRei wrote Li-po battery, KarenKei meant Lithium Phosphate battery. Lithium Polymer battery should be outlaw.

[KarenRei]

Sorry, yes -- I mistyped ;)

[futura]

Look, I'm sold on the creature. But I suppose I needed to provide clarity to my comments supporting AT802. Here's my "spin".


How does the number of wheels matter in terms of what it provides? Your ride in it will hardly be any different than if it had four wheels.

It matters because it's a negative for the non "early adopter". I haven't heard anyone say: "Gee, love your car, just wish it had one less wheel".
It's one of those things that has to be "explained". Trust me, when the first Aptera rollover accident occurs, the three-wheel design will be blamed, even when it has nothing to do with the accident. Read up on Buck Fuller's Dymaxion three-wheeler ( a bold but dangerous design IMHO). One accident in the prototype phase and that car company was done (even though it was later show the car was not at fault).


How much does the Aptera cost you over, say, a $12k 30mpg junky econobox?

Econobox: 12,000 (purchase) + 2,000 (taxes & fees) + (15 (years) * 365.24 (days) * 40 (miles) / 30 (miles/gallon) * 4 (dollars)) + (15 (years) * 12 (months) * 50 (dollars)) = $52,219.20

Aptera: 27,000 (purchase) + 3,000 (taxes & fees) - 5,000 (tax rebates over the life of the car for it being an EV) + (15 (years) * 365.24 (days) * 40 (miles) * 80 (Wh/mi) / 1000 (Wh/kWh) * 0.12 (dollars/kWh)) + (15 (years) * 12 (months) * 20 (dollars)) = $30,703.78

Where's the bad deal here?

OK, let's be real. I think the 15 years is OK for amortizing rooftop PV panels but not for cars.

If I take your algorithm and go 5 yrs (which is most people's car timeline)
econobox wins handily. My comparison would trend more towards a plug-in Prius type thing that can go 30 miles/charge. The buyer takes a $22k hit instead of $14K for the econobox. Based on anecdotal "Prius blog" info $35/mo is closer to the maintenance cost. Now after 5 years we're about even in cost except the Prius owner has that extra wheel and doesn't have to explain to prospective buyers why those news stories about the Aptera being roll-over crazy are bogus.


Some time, I should make an vehicle economics calculator similar to my solar power economics calculator:

http://www.daughtersoftiresias.org/progs/insolation/
Cool. Se habla C++? I endure the programmer's "idiot-genius rollercoaster" on occasion myself.

"and the safety (for now) must be trusted to computer simulation."

1) You know very well that they're going to be doing real-world crash tests

I really have no defense for (1). I take it back.


2) Computer crash tests are generally considered a mark of quality for a vehicle these days, not a mark against it. They allow designers to test every conceivable possible crash situation, and these days they're quite accurate. All of the major auto manufacturers are moving toward more and more computer crash tests.
Hey, I love simulations and they're really useful for design trade-offs.
But the "real crash test" will happen and Aptera will get put on a simple ranking list: "better than a Volvo" is what I hope to see. Until then, most people put their "bigger is less dangerous" glasses on and see something lacking without a "body by Metallica".



"and have to compete with the Toyotas, Hondas & perhaps GM."

They're all making PHEVs, not EVs, and they're equally (if not more) expensive (for example, the Volt is $35k). Mitsubishi is making an EV, but they have no plans to launch it in the US at this point. I think Nissan also is looking at a possible US EV, but that's still in planning. And none of them even come close to the Aptera in terms of efficiency.

Well, the playing field is shifting. (BTW,I think Volt is a SHEV like the Typ1-h). If A123 or AltairNano comes through, great. But, Aptera may have to get in line behind Toyota and GM for the first good production runs.

You know, the big car makers will be promising stuff that can make prospective Aptera buyers hold off: Plug-in Hybrids, 50 mile range (4 wheels!).

Again, you don't have to sell me. I'm just considering what an average "green" buyer (and AT802) may have on their mind when 2009 rolls around and they start looking. I'm in love with the concept a bit more than the car/company and I'm still pretty starry eyed about the car company.
IMHO, Aptera's strengths are a light, strong, drag-efficient vehicle that should be reproducible at low cost due to the overwhelming simplicity of EV technology. The intelligent synthesis of these features make this a "disruptive" technology, I think. A more competitive cost only more so.
Cheers

[KarenRei]

It matters because it's a negative for the non "early adopter". I haven't heard anyone say: "Gee, love your car, just wish it had one less wheel"."

For that matter, I've never heard anyone say they wanted any vehicle to have any different number of wheels than what it already has. The ride is the same, the performance is better, the safety is solid... so what does it matter? Looks? Aptera already has funky enough looks; having four wheels wouldn't change that much ;)

OK, let's be real. I think the 15 years is OK for amortizing rooftop PV panels but not for cars. If I take your algorithm and go 5 yrs (which is most people's car timeline)

Perhaps individually but not over the lifetime of the vehicle. The average car in the US is 9.2 years old:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cover2mar02,1,4408170.story

Extrapolating (assuming that the average vehicle is halfway through it's life, since there are both new and old cars on the road), that's 18.4 years life expectancy for the vehicle. Now, whether depreciation matches what *should* be the value of the vehicle is certainly up in the air, but you're playing with high depreciation whenever you buy a new car, period. Hybrids tend to hold on to value better than regular cars, and I'd expect the trend to be even stronger with EVs.

My comparison would trend more towards a plug-in Prius type thing that can go 30 miles/charge

A conversion or the new one that's a PHEV from the start? Conversions cost $10-$25k (on top of the base price) and don't improve your mileage as much as you'd think because the electric motor is too weak to run the car on its own at highway speeds or in many other situations. I have no idea how much the official plug-in Prius that's being worked on will cost, but I'd be shocked if it wasn't at least $5k, probably more like $10k over the base price (i.e., more than the Aptera)

Based on anecdotal "Prius blog" info $35/mo is closer to the maintenance cost

That's reasonable for "regular maintenance". Notice how I specified amortizing the major events -- say, the transmission breaks and you have to get it replaced. Maintenance is where EVs excel because there are very few things that can break (such as a transmission).

If A123 or AltairNano comes through, great. But, Aptera may have to get in line behind Toyota and GM for the first good production runs.

Well, it wouldn't be AltairNano; they're titanates. Aptera has said that they're evaluating lithium phosphate packs from multiple suppliers, so I would assume that this means that at multiple manufacturers are wanting to sell to them in their timeframe.

All of this said, I actually agree with your main point -- that many people would, and do, hesitate. Of course, I see that as the reason why Aptera has 1 1/2k reservations, not 50k reservations ;) As a small company, they have more than enough numbers to turn a profit (I think they once said they only needed a couple hundred sales in their first year of production to do so). And this is with them attempting to limit by geographic range and having rather minimal PR/advertising, and with no buyers having had a chance to drive them, to have the car reviewed, and so on. I think they're in excellent shape, so long as they keep their head above water until the cars start rolling off the lines.

[Matthijs]

at www.apteraforum.com (http://www.apteraforum.com), and have never really registered at that many forums before, but like this one.
Didn't mean to post in "General Aptera Typ-1 Discussion" Cause I wasn't really sure where else to post.

I've been lurking here at www.apteraforum.com (http://www.apteraforum.com) for a little bit, and just decided to register and give it a go today.
Well, just saying Hola, and I like the threads here.

Ciao
especially yours
Andrea

P.S I'll be lurking ;)

The best Spambot yet! :fighting0001: Link (http://www.stopforumspam.com/ipcheck/69.106.224.235) I will leave the thread cause it produced some posts!